NBA games

PHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
112–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI27223924112
DET42362918125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DET
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 27 3 7
Joel Embiid S 30 23 7 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 36 14 11 2
Quentin Grimes 28 14 2 2
Paul George S 30 14 1 0
Justin Edwards S 30 11 3 1
Ricky Council IV 2 3 0 1
Adem Bona 11 2 1 0
Kyle Lowry 15 2 2 3
Andre Drummond 8 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley S 38 36 3 1
Tobias Harris S 34 22 9 3
Ausar Thompson S 27 14 8 6
Jalen Duren S 20 13 13 7
Isaiah Stewart 22 10 8 2
Simone Fontecchio 19 10 5 2
Marcus Sasser 28 9 0 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 31 6 5 3
Ronald Holland II 15 3 1 2
Paul Reed 7 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 1-foot layup (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
8%
7 Joel Embiid PHI
8%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
9 Paul George PHI
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
4%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.7 6.1 10.7
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.9 3.6 7.9
3 Joel Embiid PHI 27.0 8.6 5.0
4 Paul George PHI 19.4 4.9 4.7
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.3 8.0 3.1
6 Jalen Duren DET 15.9 11.2 2.6
7 Malik Beasley DET 15.0 2.9 2.2
8 Tobias Harris DET 12.6 5.0 1.9
9 Eric Gordon PHI 11.3 2.0 2.9
10 Ausar Thompson DET 10.3 5.4 1.7
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.2 2.6 2.2
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.2 2.8 1.7
13 Justin Edwards PHI 10.1 3.8 1.9
14 Ricky Council IV PHI 9.3 3.3 2.1
15 Marcus Sasser DET 6.2 2.0 2.8
16 Ronald Holland II DET 6.0 2.5 1.2
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.8 5.9 1.3
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.3 2.5 1.0
19 Kyle Lowry PHI 5.1 2.3 2.8
20 Adem Bona PHI 4.9 4.4 0.6
21 Andre Drummond PHI 4.5 5.3 0.6
22 Paul Reed DET 3.4 2.6 0.9
23 Daniss Jenkins DET 2.8 1.1 1.1
24 Chuma Okeke PHI 2.5 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.