NBA games

MIA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
86–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA262724986
BKN28251831102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BKN
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier 31 20 4 2
Bam Adebayo S 37 18 8 1
Tyler Herro S 38 15 4 6
Kel'el Ware S 26 10 14 4
Duncan Robinson S 29 10 0 1
Nikola Jovic 32 8 1 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 5 3 3
Haywood Highsmith S 18 0 3 1
Pelle Larsson 11 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 30 18 6 3
D'Angelo Russell S 26 17 2 1
Trendon Watford 22 12 4 3
Nic Claxton S 31 12 10 1
Keon Johnson S 23 11 8 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 9 6 2
Ziaire Williams S 32 8 9 3
Jalen Wilson 17 8 4 0
Tosan Evbuomwan 20 5 3 2
Tyrese Martin 21 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes three point jumper (Kel'el Ware assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
3 Keon Johnson BKN
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 D'Angelo Russell BKN
9%
6 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
9 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
32%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.5 4.9 7.5
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 20.4 3.7 3.4
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.0 10.9 5.1
4 Keon Johnson BKN 16.2 4.2 3.1
5 Nikola Jovic MIA 16.1 4.2 4.5
6 D'Angelo Russell BKN 15.2 3.7 6.1
7 Terry Rozier MIA 14.0 4.3 3.2
8 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.0 9.7 1.4
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.8 3.0 2.7
10 Jalen Wilson BKN 11.6 3.9 2.8
11 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 11.4 4.3 2.2
12 Nic Claxton BKN 11.2 7.5 1.7
13 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.7 4.7 1.5
14 Trendon Watford BKN 8.9 2.9 1.6
15 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.7 4.4 2.4
16 Tyrese Martin BKN 8.7 3.8 2.0
17 Noah Clowney BKN 8.7 3.2 1.0
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.4 5.4 1.5
19 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.8 2.3 1.1
20 Alec Burks MIA 4.8 2.0 1.0
21 Kevin Love MIA 4.3 2.4 1.0
22 Reece Beekman BKN 3.9 1.5 2.1
23 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.5 1.6 0.6
24 Josh Christopher MIA 2.2 0.8 0.6
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 1.3 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.