NBA games

MIL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
110–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL26471720110
ATL36193723115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home ATL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bobby Portis S 38 26 15 6
Damian Lillard S 35 23 9 10
Gary Trent Jr. 29 19 0 4
Brook Lopez S 35 16 2 2
Kyle Kuzma 24 12 7 1
Taurean Prince S 31 9 1 1
Ryan Rollins 13 3 4 1
AJ Green 21 2 1 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 16 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 35 24 3 7
Mouhamed Gueye 23 15 12 0
Dyson Daniels S 38 15 6 10
Onyeka Okongwu S 28 14 12 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 20 13 3 0
Vit Krejci 31 11 10 3
Larry Nance Jr. 20 11 1 4
Dominick Barlow S 20 7 4 0
Keaton Wallace 19 3 1 3
Garrison Mathews 6 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dominick Barlow · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Dominick Barlow makes alley oop layup (Dyson Daniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
2 Trae Young ATL
11%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Bobby Portis MIL
7%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 26.8 4.9 8.0
2 Trae Young ATL 25.2 3.3 9.6
3 Dyson Daniels ATL 20.2 7.0 5.5
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 19.3 6.9 3.1
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 16.9 11.0 4.2
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.5 9.1 3.1
7 Bobby Portis MIL 12.6 8.2 2.1
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.2 4.8 2.0
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.7 3.9 1.5
10 Vit Krejci ATL 10.3 3.1 2.7
11 Taurean Prince MIL 10.2 3.6 2.6
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.7 2.9 1.6
13 Keaton Wallace ATL 7.7 2.0 2.6
14 AJ Green MIL 7.4 2.8 1.3
15 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 6.8 5.3 1.6
16 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.1 3.5 1.8
17 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.8 1.5 1.5
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.4 2.6 1.0
19 Daeqwon Plowden ATL 4.7 3.5 0.4
20 Tyler Smith MIL 4.2 2.0 0.7
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.9 4.4 0.6
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.8 2.5 0.6
23 Chris Livingston MIL 2.5 2.0 0.6
24 Jericho Sims MIL 2.0 2.3 0.4
25 Stanley Umude MIL 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.