NBA games

CLE @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
134–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE35293040134
WSH33342631124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home WSH
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 33 1 5
Evan Mobley S 34 27 7 1
Darius Garland S 32 23 5 5
Max Strus S 31 17 5 3
Ty Jerome 25 13 5 3
Jarrett Allen S 27 12 12 4
Jaylon Tyson 20 7 5 3
Craig Porter Jr. 23 2 4 5
Tristan Thompson 9 0 2 1
Emoni Bates 5 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 37 45 4 5
Kyshawn George S 35 17 5 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 42 16 6 4
Bub Carrington S 36 13 4 3
Richaun Holmes S 31 12 12 3
Corey Kispert 28 10 4 0
Tristan Vukcevic 16 7 4 4
Anthony Gill 6 2 0 0
AJ Johnson 9 2 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes 13-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
10%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
6 Richaun Holmes WSH
9%
7 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
8 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
50%
Jumper
12%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.0 4.6 6.5
2 Darius Garland CLE 25.7 3.5 6.8
3 Jordan Poole WSH 16.6 3.8 5.3
4 Evan Mobley CLE 16.5 10.2 2.6
5 Ty Jerome CLE 16.2 3.4 3.8
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 14.6 4.8 3.7
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.7 11.5 2.3
8 Khris Middleton WSH 12.6 3.2 3.6
9 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 12.6 3.8 4.8
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.3 3.2 1.7
11 Max Strus CLE 10.0 4.7 2.9
12 Alex Sarr WSH 9.8 6.2 1.5
13 Kyshawn George WSH 8.7 3.5 2.0
14 Sam Merrill CLE 8.2 2.5 1.5
15 Bub Carrington WSH 7.5 2.7 3.1
16 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.4 3.0 1.2
17 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.9 4.7 1.0
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.4 1.7 0.9
19 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.9 1.7 0.7
20 AJ Johnson WSH 3.0 1.4 1.7
21 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 1.0 0.5
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.8 3.2 0.9
23 Emoni Bates CLE 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.