NBA games

SA @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
116–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA22283135116
CHA34283025117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home CHA
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle 31 33 4 2
De'Aaron Fox S 33 22 2 6
Victor Wembanyama S 34 16 11 3
Devin Vassell S 34 15 4 1
Jeremy Sochan 24 11 12 2
Harrison Barnes S 22 8 4 2
Chris Paul S 27 6 1 7
Julian Champagnie 19 3 0 2
Keldon Johnson 16 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 35 25 7 2
LaMelo Ball S 36 24 4 10
Nick Smith Jr. S 34 19 6 5
KJ Simpson 19 12 3 3
Seth Curry 21 12 4 2
Moussa Diabate S 33 9 15 6
Tidjane Salaun 18 8 5 0
DaQuan Jeffries S 30 4 5 5
Taj Gibson 13 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 10-foot two point shot (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
14%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
7 KJ Simpson CHA
7%
8 Grant Williams CHA
7%
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
6%
10 Taj Gibson CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
47%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
13%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 24.8 5.1 7.4
2 Miles Bridges CHA 24.4 7.9 5.2
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.0 10.9 3.8
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.3 4.8 6.7
5 Devin Vassell SA 18.2 3.8 3.4
6 Stephon Castle SA 18.1 4.2 4.0
7 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 14.4 3.2 3.3
8 Harrison Barnes SA 13.8 4.9 2.4
9 Grant Williams CHA 13.3 6.3 2.4
10 Keldon Johnson SA 10.2 3.2 1.3
11 Chris Paul SA 9.6 3.5 6.4
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.7 7.8 1.5
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 7.9 5.3 1.9
14 KJ Simpson CHA 7.7 2.9 2.3
15 Elfrid Payton CHA 7.2 4.1 6.1
16 Seth Curry CHA 6.6 1.8 1.2
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.1 3.6 1.3
18 Julian Champagnie SA 5.8 3.1 1.3
19 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.4 2.9 1.3
20 Isaiah Wong CHA 5.2 1.5 1.2
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.4 1.6 0.8
22 Malaki Branham SA 2.2 0.7 0.5
23 Taj Gibson CHA 2.2 3.1 0.6
24 Blake Wesley SA 1.9 0.9 1.5
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.8 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.