NBA games

IND @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
119–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND22422035119
LAC42192724112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home LAC
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 33 11 2
Bennedict Mathurin S 28 25 6 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 14 3 8
Ben Sheppard 15 12 1 0
Thomas Bryant 28 12 10 4
Obi Toppin 28 10 6 2
T.J. McConnell 15 5 3 6
Andrew Nembhard S 31 4 3 2
Aaron Nesmith 21 4 3 3
Myles Turner S 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 36 22 4 3
James Harden S 38 22 6 10
Kawhi Leonard S 33 19 4 4
Ivica Zubac S 35 18 15 2
Amir Coffey 23 14 2 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 27 12 4 1
Drew Eubanks 13 4 5 0
Kris Dunn 22 1 6 5
Nicolas Batum 12 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 1-foot driving dunk (Kawhi Leonard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 James Harden LAC
11%
3 Norman Powell LAC
11%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
11%
6 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
8 Myles Turner IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 23.2 7.2 4.0
2 Norman Powell LAC 23.0 4.5 2.9
3 James Harden LAC 22.9 5.2 10.1
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 18.2 5.3 3.3
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.2 3.8 7.0
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.1 12.0 2.7
7 Myles Turner IND 15.4 5.4 1.8
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.5 4.4 1.8
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.1 3.8 5.5
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 13.0 5.8 1.8
11 Amir Coffey LAC 9.9 2.3 1.5
12 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.5 3.0 1.4
13 Drew Eubanks LAC 8.0 5.4 1.2
14 Obi Toppin IND 7.9 3.2 1.1
15 T.J. McConnell IND 7.7 3.2 4.5
16 Thomas Bryant IND 7.3 3.6 1.1
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.4 2.6 2.0
18 Jarace Walker IND 5.3 3.3 1.3
19 Patty Mills LAC 5.2 1.8 1.2
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.0 3.1 1.0
21 Kris Dunn LAC 4.9 2.8 2.4
22 Kobe Brown LAC 3.4 2.5 0.9
23 Jordan Miller LAC 2.6 1.5 0.8
24 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.0 0.5
25 James Johnson IND 2.3 1.2 0.6
26 Kai Jones LAC 1.7 1.4 0.3
27 Cam Christie LAC 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.