NBA games

SAC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
102–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC27232725102
POR27272529108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home POR
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 37 22 4 1
DeMar DeRozan S 37 22 4 7
Malik Monk S 39 21 7 4
Keegan Murray S 35 12 7 1
Domantas Sabonis S 29 10 14 4
Keon Ellis 24 7 3 0
Jonas Valanciunas 17 6 5 3
Trey Lyles 14 2 2 1
Devin Carter 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 34 30 2 6
Shaedon Sharpe 31 24 4 1
Deandre Ayton S 31 18 8 4
Jerami Grant S 37 12 4 2
Deni Avdija S 18 9 4 0
Scoot Henderson 22 5 1 8
Toumani Camara S 36 4 14 2
Dalano Banton 10 4 3 0
Donovan Clingan 17 2 7 1
Kris Murray 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes 2-foot two point shot (Toumani Camara assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
2 Zach LaVine SAC
11%
3 Deni Avdija POR
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
5 Jerami Grant POR
10%
6 Malik Monk SAC
9%
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC
8%
8 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
9 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
7%
10 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
32%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine SAC 24.1 4.8 4.8
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.1 4.1 2.9
3 Malik Monk SAC 22.4 4.2 6.5
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.4 13.6 6.2
5 Deni Avdija POR 20.8 7.0 4.8
6 Anfernee Simons POR 18.7 3.6 5.3
7 Deandre Ayton POR 16.4 10.9 2.0
8 Scoot Henderson POR 16.2 3.9 6.1
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR 15.2 3.9 2.1
10 Toumani Camara POR 14.5 6.9 2.7
11 Jerami Grant POR 13.9 3.4 2.2
12 Keegan Murray SAC 11.8 6.1 1.5
13 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 10.4 8.0 2.0
14 Keon Ellis SAC 8.0 2.7 1.7
15 Dalano Banton POR 7.7 2.1 1.3
16 Trey Lyles SAC 5.6 4.0 0.9
17 Donovan Clingan POR 5.1 7.3 1.1
18 Robert Williams III POR 4.6 6.5 1.0
19 Kris Murray POR 4.3 2.1 0.9
20 Jabari Walker POR 3.9 3.0 0.7
21 Mason Jones SAC 3.6 2.0 1.2
22 Devin Carter SAC 3.3 1.6 1.0
23 Isaac Jones SAC 3.0 1.8 0.6
24 Duop Reath POR 2.9 1.4 0.6
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.6 0.7 0.4
26 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.5 1.5 0.5
27 Rayan Rupert POR 2.5 1.1 0.7
28 Jae Crowder SAC 2.1 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.