NBA games

GS @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
112–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS21283033112
LAL34352130120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAL
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 37 37 7 4
Moses Moody 32 14 5 2
Buddy Hield S 35 14 5 5
Draymond Green S 33 13 5 4
Pat Spencer 17 13 3 0
Brandin Podziemski S 34 8 8 7
Quinten Post S 11 6 2 2
Kevon Looney 12 4 3 2
Gary Payton II 8 3 1 1
Jackson Rowe 15 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 38 42 17 8
Austin Reaves S 36 23 3 4
Gabe Vincent 30 15 0 1
Rui Hachimura S 39 11 4 3
Jaxson Hayes S 25 11 3 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 33 7 1 3
Jarred Vanderbilt 21 5 14 3
Christian Koloko 4 4 2 0
Shake Milton 15 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
22%
2 Rui Hachimura LAL
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
5 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
8%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
8 Quinten Post GS
7%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
7%
10 Buddy Hield GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
16%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.5 8.1 10.5
2 Austin Reaves LAL 22.1 4.5 6.5
3 Stephen Curry GS 21.5 3.0 6.3
4 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.7 4.9 1.8
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.6 3.6 3.1
6 Moses Moody GS 10.9 3.2 1.9
7 Draymond Green GS 9.2 5.6 4.9
8 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.7 2.1 2.2
9 Buddy Hield GS 7.9 2.8 1.8
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.9 3.0 1.3
11 Quinten Post GS 7.6 3.6 1.6
12 Gary Payton II GS 6.3 3.2 1.4
13 Gui Santos GS 6.2 3.2 1.4
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.2 5.0 1.4
15 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 7.0 1.8
16 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.9 5.9 1.3
17 Jackson Rowe GS 4.5 3.4 0.7
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.2 4.8 1.1
19 Shake Milton LAL 4.1 1.8 1.5
20 Pat Spencer GS 3.6 2.1 1.6
21 Armel Traore LAL 3.0 2.6 0.6
22 Trey Jemison III LAL 2.8 3.1 0.7
23 Bronny James LAL 2.6 1.4 0.8
24 Christian Koloko LAL 2.5 2.0 0.6
25 Markieff Morris LAL 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.