NBA games

ORL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
90–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2624172390
DEN25343320112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DEN
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Wendell Carter Jr. 26 19 4 0
Paolo Banchero S 30 18 8 4
Franz Wagner S 30 14 4 4
Anthony Black 26 8 1 4
Tristan da Silva 18 7 2 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 27 7 4 3
Cole Anthony S 22 5 2 3
Trevelin Queen 11 4 5 2
Goga Bitadze S 17 4 3 0
Jett Howard 14 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 30 7 1
Nikola Jokic S 31 28 10 12
Christian Braun S 36 16 8 4
Aaron Gordon S 23 11 3 7
DeAndre Jordan 12 8 7 1
Hunter Tyson 11 7 2 0
Jalen Pickett 31 5 3 5
Zeke Nnaji 21 3 6 0
Julian Strawther S 31 2 3 3
Trey Alexander 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 20-foot jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Christian Braun DEN
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
11%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
7 Cole Anthony ORL
11%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
9%
9 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
10 Jonathan Isaac ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
38%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.4 10.7 9.9
2 Franz Wagner ORL 27.3 5.1 4.5
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.7 6.3 5.9
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.5 6.4 1.9
5 Christian Braun DEN 17.9 6.0 2.6
6 Cole Anthony ORL 17.1 4.2 4.0
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.4 7.6 3.4
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 11.4 3.5 3.1
9 Anthony Black ORL 10.4 2.9 2.8
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.0 2.5 1.4
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.0 3.6 2.0
12 Julian Strawther DEN 8.6 2.5 1.3
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.8 7.3 2.1
14 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.9 2.1 1.1
15 Jett Howard ORL 5.9 1.7 1.1
16 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.8 2.5 1.3
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.3 4.9 0.9
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.1 4.8 0.8
19 Dario Saric DEN 3.9 2.9 1.4
20 Cory Joseph ORL 3.8 1.1 1.2
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 2.3 0.5
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.0 1.4 1.0
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.7 1.6 0.5
24 Spencer Jones DEN 2.3 1.1 0.5
25 PJ Hall DEN 2.3 1.4 0.5
26 Trey Alexander DEN 2.3 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.