NBA games

HOU @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
114–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU33382716114
MIN32342635127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIN
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 38 28 6 5
Cam Whitmore 28 16 3 0
Alperen Sengun S 33 16 10 7
Amen Thompson S 37 16 3 5
Dillon Brooks S 34 15 3 1
Tari Eason S 28 10 4 2
Jock Landale 14 10 5 1
Reed Sheppard 17 3 2 2
Jae'Sean Tate 11 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 41 7 6
Jaylen Clark 19 17 3 1
Mike Conley S 29 16 3 5
Naz Reid S 36 15 11 4
Rudy Gobert S 34 13 10 0
Jaden McDaniels S 31 12 8 4
Rob Dillingham 13 6 0 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 7 5 0 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 32 2 3 2
Luka Garza 2 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
5 Jalen Green HOU
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
8 Tari Eason HOU
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
6%
10 Naz Reid MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
32%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 30.7 6.1 6.1
2 Jalen Green HOU 21.9 4.3 4.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.9 10.4 5.1
4 Amen Thompson HOU 19.4 9.2 5.9
5 Naz Reid MIN 17.2 4.9 2.8
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.1 7.5 2.2
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.9 3.8 1.5
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.4 10.5 2.4
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.7 2.8 4.8
10 Tari Eason HOU 10.9 5.5 1.5
11 Mike Conley MIN 10.1 2.8 5.4
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.1 3.6 2.2
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.8 3.8 1.6
14 Rob Dillingham MIN 8.7 2.1 3.5
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.4 1.4 1.2
16 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.6 2.1 0.9
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.5 1.7 0.7
18 Luka Garza MIN 3.7 1.7 0.6
19 Jeff Green HOU 3.6 1.2 0.3
20 Leonard Miller MIN 3.6 2.6 0.6
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.5 2.3 0.8
22 N'Faly Dante HOU 2.7 2.2 0.5
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.6 1.1 0.7
24 Josh Minott MIN 2.6 1.5 0.5
25 Jaden Springer HOU 2.3 0.9 0.4
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.3 0.8 1.3
27 Jock Landale HOU 2.2 1.7 0.5
28 Nate Williams HOU 2.2 0.6 0.3
29 Tristen Newton MIN 2.2 0.7 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.