NBA games

DAL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
127–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL32353723127
BOS23332737120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home BOS
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 29 25 3 4
Spencer Dinwiddie 31 22 2 2
Naji Marshall 29 20 2 3
Kyrie Irving S 40 19 3 4
Dante Exum S 20 15 0 5
Max Christie 30 15 6 4
Daniel Gafford S 34 8 15 5
Kessler Edwards S 15 3 3 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 14 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 33 25 5 2
Payton Pritchard 33 21 6 6
Kristaps Porzingis S 27 17 5 1
Jayson Tatum S 29 17 4 4
Derrick White S 26 13 3 3
Luke Kornet 23 7 5 5
Sam Hauser 21 6 1 2
Neemias Queta 10 6 2 1
Drew Peterson 10 3 1 3
Al Horford S 21 3 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
17%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
12%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
6 Dante Exum DAL
8%
7 Kessler Edwards DAL
7%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
48%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.6 5.2 4.9
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.4 6.3 7.2
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.3 6.6 5.8
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.4 6.5 3.0
5 Daniel Gafford DAL 17.4 10.6 2.5
6 Derrick White BOS 16.6 4.2 4.1
7 Naji Marshall DAL 11.7 4.0 3.3
8 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 11.6 2.8 3.8
9 Klay Thompson DAL 10.9 3.5 2.0
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.5 3.7 3.5
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 9.9 4.6 2.9
12 Max Christie DAL 9.6 4.1 1.9
13 Dante Exum DAL 9.4 2.2 2.5
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.5 1.5 1.3
15 Luke Kornet BOS 6.9 4.6 1.7
16 Al Horford BOS 6.6 4.3 1.3
17 Sam Hauser BOS 6.6 2.7 1.1
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.5 3.5 1.1
19 Kylor Kelley DAL 4.3 3.5 0.5
20 Kessler Edwards DAL 3.9 3.3 0.9
21 Neemias Queta BOS 3.2 1.5 0.6
22 Drew Peterson BOS 3.0 1.9 0.7
23 Brandon Williams DAL 2.8 0.9 1.0
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.9 0.7 0.5
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 1.7 1.1 0.5
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.