NBA games

ORL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
130–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL37254226130
SAC31292328111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home SAC
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 27 31 5 3
Paolo Banchero S 31 23 0 9
Anthony Black 16 15 1 3
Goga Bitadze S 23 14 7 2
Cole Anthony S 23 14 2 3
Tristan da Silva 18 11 2 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 22 8 2 1
Wendell Carter Jr. 20 8 8 3
Caleb Houstan 7 3 1 0
Jett Howard 6 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 32 21 13 3
DeMar DeRozan S 33 19 2 2
Zach LaVine S 31 13 1 3
Keon Ellis 26 12 3 3
Malik Monk S 25 10 0 3
Mason Jones 8 9 1 0
Devin Carter 11 9 3 4
Trey Lyles 15 8 0 0
Keegan Murray S 30 5 6 1
Isaac Jones 14 4 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
15%
2 Malik Monk SAC
10%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
5 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Anthony Black ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
19%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 28.3 5.3 4.7
2 Zach LaVine SAC 24.0 5.3 4.8
3 Malik Monk SAC 23.7 4.8 7.5
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.6 4.4 2.9
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.3 13.3 7.5
6 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.2 7.2 5.4
7 Cole Anthony ORL 17.5 4.7 4.0
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.9 6.4 1.7
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.9 8.4 3.3
10 Anthony Black ORL 10.6 3.0 3.0
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.5 2.4 1.6
12 Keon Ellis SAC 8.7 2.9 1.6
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.6 3.8 1.9
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.7 8.3 2.4
15 Jett Howard ORL 5.8 1.8 1.2
16 Trey Lyles SAC 5.8 4.3 1.0
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.7 5.0 0.8
18 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.3 1.7 1.0
19 Gary Harris ORL 5.2 1.4 0.9
20 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.8 2.0 1.0
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.3 1.1 0.6
22 Isaac Jones SAC 3.1 1.7 0.6
23 Devin Carter SAC 3.0 1.6 0.9
24 Cory Joseph ORL 2.6 0.7 0.9
25 Mason Jones SAC 2.6 1.8 1.1
26 Jae Crowder SAC 2.5 1.6 0.4
27 Isaiah Crawford SAC 1.5 1.0 0.3
28 Alex Len SAC 1.4 1.5 0.5
29 Colby Jones SAC 1.4 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.