NO @ DEN
NBA
Ball Arena
·Final
119–144
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 36 | 32 | 27 | 24 | 119 |
| DEN | 36 | 32 | 45 | 31 | 144 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
DEN
21%
79%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson S | 27 | 28 | 6 | 4 |
| Trey Murphy III S | 32 | 25 | 5 | 9 |
| CJ McCollum S | 28 | 19 | 1 | 3 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 25 | 15 | 3 | 2 |
| Yves Missi S | 32 | 12 | 6 | 2 |
| Karlo Matkovic S | 30 | 10 | 9 | 1 |
| Antonio Reeves | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Javonte Green | 18 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Jamal Cain | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Zion Williamson ·
Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
CJ McCollum
NO
16%
2
Zion Williamson
NO
12%
3
Jamal Murray
DEN
11%
4
Christian Braun
DEN
10%
5
Yves Missi
NO
8%
6
Michael Porter Jr.
DEN
8%
7
Nikola Jokic
DEN
8%
8
Trey Murphy III
NO
7%
9
Zeke Nnaji
DEN
7%
10
Aaron Gordon
DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
35%
Layup
21%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikola Jokic | DEN | 29.7 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| 2 | Zion Williamson | NO | 25.9 | 8.2 | 5.9 |
| 3 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 25.6 | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| 4 | Jamal Murray | DEN | 23.5 | 4.6 | 6.6 |
| 5 | CJ McCollum | NO | 22.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 6 | Christian Braun | DEN | 17.6 | 5.5 | 2.5 |
| 7 | Michael Porter Jr. | DEN | 17.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 |
| 8 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 11.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Aaron Gordon | DEN | 10.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| 10 | Julian Strawther | DEN | 9.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 11 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 8.8 | 2.4 | 4.3 |
| 12 | Yves Missi | NO | 8.4 | 7.0 | 1.4 |
| 13 | Javonte Green | NO | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| 14 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 4.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
| 15 | DeAndre Jordan | DEN | 4.6 | 4.8 | 0.8 |
| 16 | Dario Saric | DEN | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 17 | Antonio Reeves | NO | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 18 | Jamal Cain | NO | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 19 | Jalen Pickett | DEN | 3.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 20 | Zeke Nnaji | DEN | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 21 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| 22 | Hunter Tyson | DEN | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 23 | Spencer Jones | DEN | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 24 | PJ Hall | DEN | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 25 | Trey Alexander | DEN | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.