NBA games

PHX @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
109–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX33301630109
OKC37244336140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home OKC
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal 29 25 3 6
Devin Booker S 31 19 2 3
Royce O'Neale S 29 18 5 1
Tyus Jones S 29 10 0 3
Grayson Allen S 30 9 2 3
Collin Gillespie 8 6 1 2
Nick Richards S 21 6 6 0
Oso Ighodaro 8 4 3 2
Damion Lee 8 4 2 1
Jalen Bridges 8 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 50 8 5
Aaron Wiggins S 25 17 6 1
Jalen Williams S 26 13 3 4
Isaiah Joe 21 12 3 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 9 4 4
Luguentz Dort S 26 7 2 1
Adam Flagler 6 7 0 0
Dillon Jones 7 6 2 2
Alex Caruso 17 5 1 2
Ousmane Dieng 9 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Royce O'Neale · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
17%
2 Devin Booker PHX
15%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Nick Richards PHX
10%
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
9 Kenrich Williams OKC
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
49%
Jumper
32%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 34.7 4.3 7.3
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.7 4.2 6.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.7 5.3 5.4
4 Bradley Beal PHX 16.3 3.3 3.9
5 Isaiah Joe OKC 13.2 2.6 1.7
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.9 4.1 2.2
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.8 10.6 4.7
8 Grayson Allen PHX 10.7 4.0 2.2
9 Tyus Jones PHX 10.1 2.4 4.8
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.1 3.7 1.9
11 Nick Richards PHX 9.7 9.2 1.3
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.3 6.2 2.3
13 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 7.2 6.7 2.3
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 6.6 3.6 1.5
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.5 3.6 1.2
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 3.6 1.2
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.5 2.3 1.4
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.1 5.8 1.5
19 Alex Caruso OKC 5.0 2.2 2.3
20 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.5 1.5 1.5
21 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.6 2.4 0.9
22 Monte Morris PHX 3.3 1.2 1.2
23 Damion Lee PHX 3.1 1.1 0.6
24 Bol Bol PHX 3.0 1.5 0.5
25 Alex Ducas OKC 2.9 1.4 0.6
26 Dillon Jones OKC 2.5 2.1 1.0
27 Adam Flagler OKC 2.5 1.2 0.5
28 Jalen Bridges PHX 2.4 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.