NBA games

CHI @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
108–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI30303018108
MIN39233233127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIN
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 32 20 0 4
Josh Giddey S 32 19 4 4
Matas Buzelis S 29 14 5 1
Jalen Smith 15 14 5 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 36 11 0 4
Jevon Carter 23 10 2 6
Nikola Vucevic S 31 10 11 4
Patrick Williams 25 8 3 1
Julian Phillips 17 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 49 9 3
Naz Reid S 36 22 10 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 26 12 5 3
Jaden McDaniels S 37 12 8 2
Rudy Gobert S 31 10 15 1
Mike Conley S 26 8 5 9
Jaylen Clark 22 5 1 0
Luka Garza 7 4 1 0
Rob Dillingham 16 3 3 3
Leonard Miller 1 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
14%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
6 Coby White CHI
10%
7 Naz Reid MIN
10%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
41%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
20%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.1 6.0 6.4
2 Coby White CHI 19.3 3.5 4.9
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.9 9.8 4.6
4 Naz Reid MIN 16.7 4.7 2.4
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.5 7.6 2.3
6 Josh Giddey CHI 14.6 6.7 5.7
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.6 10.0 2.5
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.4 3.2 3.8
9 Patrick Williams CHI 10.3 4.6 1.9
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.0 3.4 2.3
11 Mike Conley MIN 9.7 2.5 5.2
12 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.1 2.0 3.8
13 Matas Buzelis CHI 8.0 3.5 0.8
14 Jalen Smith CHI 7.4 5.7 1.0
15 Jevon Carter CHI 4.9 1.4 0.8
16 Emanuel Miller CHI 4.4 1.9 0.5
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.4 1.8 0.8
18 Julian Phillips CHI 4.1 2.1 0.6
19 Luka Garza MIN 3.9 1.7 0.7
20 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 1.5 1.4
21 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.3 1.6 0.6
22 Leonard Miller MIN 2.8 2.4 0.4
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.6 1.1 0.8
24 Joe Ingles MIN 2.5 1.0 1.4
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.2 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.