NBA games

MEM @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
138–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM22314342138
TOR29302523107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home TOR
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 28 32 5 4
Ja Morant S 25 26 5 4
GG Jackson 21 17 6 1
Brandon Clarke 19 13 5 0
Zach Edey S 25 13 15 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 14 12 5 0
Jaylen Wells S 21 7 4 1
Santi Aldama 18 6 4 2
Luke Kennard S 22 5 4 3
Vince Williams Jr. 13 4 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Shead S 30 14 0 4
Ja'Kobe Walter S 28 14 3 3
Ochai Agbaji 22 14 3 2
Gradey Dick S 32 13 7 0
Scottie Barnes S 32 11 2 9
Jonathan Mogbo 19 10 6 2
Davion Mitchell 18 10 1 5
Kelly Olynyk S 25 9 7 2
Bruce Brown 18 8 3 1
Jamison Battle 14 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Ja Morant makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
16%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
15%
3 Ja Morant MEM
15%
4 Zach Edey MEM
12%
5 Gradey Dick TOR
12%
6 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
10%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
8 Luke Kennard MEM
9%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
10 Marcus Smart MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
50%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.7 5.2 3.0
2 Ja Morant MEM 22.4 3.9 7.0
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.1 7.6 6.5
4 Luke Kennard MEM 13.2 3.3 3.9
5 Gradey Dick TOR 13.2 3.0 2.1
6 Santi Aldama MEM 10.9 4.9 1.5
7 Bruce Brown TOR 10.2 4.4 2.0
8 Marcus Smart MEM 10.1 2.6 3.9
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.0 2.6 1.7
10 Zach Edey MEM 9.1 7.8 1.3
11 Chris Boucher TOR 9.0 4.1 0.9
12 GG Jackson MEM 8.5 3.6 1.0
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.1 4.7 1.3
14 Davion Mitchell TOR 8.0 1.7 4.6
15 Jamal Shead TOR 7.9 1.9 3.6
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.6 3.2 1.3
17 Kelly Olynyk TOR 7.5 3.2 2.8
18 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.6 3.6 2.9
19 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.5 3.1 4.1
20 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.1 1.9 1.3
21 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.3 4.1 1.2
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.8 3.0 1.1
23 John Konchar MEM 4.3 5.3 1.0
24 Jay Huff MEM 4.2 1.9 0.6
25 Orlando Robinson TOR 3.7 2.5 0.7
26 Jamison Battle TOR 3.2 1.1 0.8
27 Yuki Kawamura MEM 3.0 1.2 1.0
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.