NBA games

MIA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
108–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29332422108
PHI25322222101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home PHI
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 36 30 7 7
Nikola Jovic 37 23 5 7
Terry Rozier 27 20 5 2
Bam Adebayo S 34 18 13 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 18 9 6 2
Pelle Larsson 22 5 2 1
Haywood Highsmith S 21 3 1 0
Kevin Love 7 0 2 0
Kel'el Ware S 19 0 13 1
Duncan Robinson S 20 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 38 31 3 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 15 11 0
Adem Bona 18 11 5 0
Reggie Jackson 12 10 1 1
Paul George S 32 9 1 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 30 9 9 2
Justin Edwards S 24 8 4 3
Eric Gordon 26 5 3 5
Kyle Lowry 14 3 2 4
Ricky Council IV 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
4 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
9%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
9%
7 Joel Embiid PHI
8%
8 Paul George PHI
7%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 30.5 3.4 8.6
2 Joel Embiid PHI 27.2 8.6 5.5
3 Tyler Herro MIA 25.1 5.5 7.7
4 Paul George PHI 21.6 5.3 5.2
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.6 10.3 5.3
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.8 7.7 3.7
7 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 17.3 6.4 3.5
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 15.6 4.2 5.0
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.9 9.2 1.6
10 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.4 3.3 3.0
11 Terry Rozier MIA 13.4 4.3 3.5
12 Eric Gordon PHI 11.0 1.7 2.5
13 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.7 2.7 2.6
14 Justin Edwards PHI 10.5 3.8 1.8
15 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.3 4.2 2.9
16 Ricky Council IV PHI 9.7 3.5 2.3
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.9 2.8 1.2
18 Reggie Jackson PHI 5.6 1.8 1.2
19 Adem Bona PHI 5.5 4.6 0.8
20 Josh Richardson MIA 5.4 1.8 1.6
21 Alec Burks MIA 5.3 2.2 1.1
22 Kyle Lowry PHI 4.9 2.4 2.7
23 Kevin Love MIA 3.7 2.1 0.9
24 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.1 1.2 0.6
25 Josh Christopher MIA 2.8 1.0 0.7
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 1.9 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.