NBA games

SA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
126–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA35373123126
ATL25294328125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home ATL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 37 24 5 13
Victor Wembanyama S 31 24 12 2
Devin Vassell S 34 20 3 4
Jeremy Sochan 27 15 4 2
Harrison Barnes S 23 13 6 1
Stephon Castle 20 11 2 3
Chris Paul S 30 11 4 9
Julian Champagnie 22 5 3 2
Keldon Johnson 15 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 43 32 2 12
Onyeka Okongwu S 31 30 12 5
De'Andre Hunter S 39 22 10 5
Dyson Daniels S 38 19 8 7
Zaccharie Risacher S 23 6 1 0
Keaton Wallace 12 5 0 0
Dominick Barlow 11 5 3 0
Vit Krejci 19 5 5 2
Larry Nance Jr. 17 1 3 1
Garrison Mathews 7 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Stephon Castle SA
10%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL
8%
7 Devin Vassell SA
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
35%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 29.1 3.2 11.8
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.3 10.8 3.7
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.6 4.7 4.0
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.5 5.1 6.2
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 19.5 7.1 5.4
6 Devin Vassell SA 18.6 4.1 3.5
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 18.1 3.7 2.3
8 Harrison Barnes SA 15.2 5.0 2.7
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.7 9.4 3.1
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.9 4.0 1.9
11 Keldon Johnson SA 10.9 3.5 1.5
12 Vit Krejci ATL 10.7 3.2 2.8
13 Chris Paul SA 10.2 3.5 6.9
14 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 9.1 6.3 1.9
15 Keaton Wallace ATL 8.0 2.0 3.1
16 Jeremy Sochan SA 7.8 5.4 2.1
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.0 3.0 1.3
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.6 2.3 1.1
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.2 2.0 0.9
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.2 3.0 0.7
21 David Roddy ATL 3.9 2.5 0.9
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.5 2.1 0.7
23 David Duke Jr. SA 3.3 1.9 1.3
24 Malaki Branham SA 2.9 1.1 0.6
25 Harrison Ingram SA 2.7 2.2 0.6
26 Blake Wesley SA 2.7 1.3 1.7
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.4 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.