NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
118–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE34312132118
DET26302732115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 35 30 9 7
Darius Garland S 31 25 3 5
Craig Porter Jr. 16 16 0 1
Max Strus S 28 15 6 2
Ty Jerome 19 13 4 5
Georges Niang 23 7 5 1
Sam Merrill 27 6 2 0
Jarrett Allen S 32 6 13 6
Jaylon Tyson 9 0 2 1
Caris LeVert S 21 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 38 7 9
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 35 20 3 1
Ausar Thompson S 27 12 8 3
Ronald Holland II 19 9 1 1
Jalen Duren S 22 8 10 0
Tobias Harris S 25 8 2 1
Isaiah Stewart 18 8 6 1
Paul Reed 8 7 6 1
Simone Fontecchio 11 3 1 0
Malik Beasley 25 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Darius Garland CLE
14%
2 Jalen Duren DET
14%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Tobias Harris DET
10%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Georges Niang CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
44%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 28.5 5.6 9.5
2 Darius Garland CLE 25.2 3.3 6.9
3 Ty Jerome CLE 15.9 3.3 3.3
4 Jalen Duren DET 15.8 11.2 2.5
5 Evan Mobley CLE 15.6 9.8 2.3
6 Malik Beasley DET 13.6 2.9 1.9
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.9 10.8 1.9
8 Tobias Harris DET 12.0 4.9 1.9
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.0 2.8 1.6
10 Georges Niang CLE 9.7 3.8 1.1
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.4 5.1 1.6
12 Max Strus CLE 9.2 4.6 2.8
13 Caris LeVert CLE 8.8 3.5 3.4
14 Sam Merrill CLE 8.0 2.5 1.4
15 Marcus Sasser DET 6.2 1.9 2.4
16 Ronald Holland II DET 5.6 2.2 1.0
17 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.5 2.5 0.9
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.4 5.5 1.3
19 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.6 2.6 1.0
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.6 1.1 0.5
21 Daniss Jenkins DET 2.4 1.0 0.7
22 Paul Reed DET 2.3 1.8 0.6
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.1 3.3 1.0
24 Emoni Bates CLE 1.6 0.6 0.3
25 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 1.6 0.8 0.7
26 Bobi Klintman DET 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.