NBA games

MIL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
112–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL38282026112
CHA26302125102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHA
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 31 29 4 12
Bobby Portis S 32 23 17 5
Brook Lopez S 30 14 3 0
Gary Trent Jr. 26 13 6 0
Taurean Prince S 25 11 2 0
AJ Green 28 8 2 1
Ryan Rollins 17 6 2 4
Pat Connaughton 27 4 6 3
Andre Jackson Jr. S 16 2 1 1
Tyler Smith 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nick Smith Jr. S 32 23 2 2
Miles Bridges S 26 15 6 6
KJ Simpson S 28 15 0 3
Tidjane Salaun 22 10 4 1
Moussa Diabate 23 10 13 2
DaQuan Jeffries 29 9 6 2
Mark Williams S 25 6 5 2
Isaiah Wong 16 6 0 2
Josh Green S 25 5 3 0
Seth Curry 14 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
KJ Simpson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"KJ Simpson makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
2 Mark Williams CHA
10%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
7%
6 Chris Livingston MIL
6%
7 Josh Green CHA
6%
8 Grant Williams CHA
6%
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
6%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
47%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.0 12.2 7.4
2 Damian Lillard MIL 25.9 4.8 7.3
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.6 8.1 4.5
4 Mark Williams CHA 21.4 11.9 3.4
5 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 13.0 3.4 2.9
6 Grant Williams CHA 12.6 6.4 2.2
7 Brook Lopez MIL 12.2 4.9 2.0
8 Bobby Portis MIL 9.8 6.6 1.3
9 Taurean Prince MIL 9.7 3.3 2.4
10 Josh Green CHA 9.7 2.9 1.8
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.1 2.7 1.5
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 7.5 6.7 1.3
13 AJ Green MIL 6.7 2.7 1.2
14 Seth Curry CHA 6.7 1.8 1.3
15 KJ Simpson CHA 6.5 2.8 2.0
16 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.1 3.6 1.5
17 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.5 1.7 1.3
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.2 2.6 1.6
19 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 4.6 2.6 1.1
20 Isaiah Wong CHA 4.5 1.5 0.9
21 Delon Wright MIL 4.2 2.2 1.7
22 Tyler Smith MIL 4.0 2.0 0.7
23 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.0 2.8 0.9
24 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.7 1.8 0.7
25 Chris Livingston MIL 2.6 2.1 0.5
26 Taj Gibson CHA 2.2 2.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.