Tuesday, February 4, 2025

IND @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final

89–112

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
IND	18	20	28	23	89
POR	27	18	33	34	112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (POR) / 10 (IND) games this season

IND away

home POR

43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Andrew Nembhard S	27	17	6	2	6/10	0/1	-24
Pascal Siakam S	32	16	6	1	6/14	0/2	-7
T.J. McConnell	18	14	4	4	7/11	0/1	2
Bennedict Mathurin S	29	12	7	2	4/9	1/1	-10
Myles Turner S	30	9	2	1	3/8	2/4	-15
Ben Sheppard	21	9	4	2	4/10	1/6	1
Thomas Bryant	15	5	3	2	1/5	0/2	-5
Aaron Nesmith	17	5	0	2	2/5	1/2	-9
Jarace Walker	8	2	1	1	1/3	0/1	-6
Obi Toppin	9	0	2	0	0/2	0/2	-10

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Anfernee Simons S	32	22	3	7	8/16	4/9	7
Jerami Grant S	32	20	2	1	6/14	3/6	12
Shaedon Sharpe	24	17	4	1	6/17	1/7	8
Scoot Henderson	28	17	8	5	7/13	3/5	31
Toumani Camara S	36	13	7	2	5/7	1/2	33
Deandre Ayton S	22	8	9	2	4/8	0/0	3
Deni Avdija S	23	6	4	1	2/9	1/6	4
Duop Reath	2	5	0	0	1/2	1/2	1
Robert Williams III	24	4	11	3	2/5	0/0	19
Dalano Banton	2	0	1	0	0/0	0/0	1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Anfernee Simons · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1

"Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three pointer"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Deandre Ayton POR

13%

2 Deni Avdija POR

11%

3 Pascal Siakam IND

10%

4 Bennedict Mathurin IND

10%

5 Tyrese Haliburton IND

6 Jerami Grant POR

7 Anfernee Simons POR

8 Myles Turner IND

9 Andrew Nembhard IND

10 Toumani Camara POR

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

Dunk

14%

Free Throw

19%

Jumper

31%

Layup

35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Pascal Siakam	IND	23.2	7.5	3.9	16	6	1
2	Deni Avdija	POR	20.2	7.8	5.2	6	4	1
3	Tyrese Haliburton	IND	19.1	3.9	7.3	0	2	6
4	Anfernee Simons	POR	17.0	3.5	5.0	22	3	7
5	Scoot Henderson	POR	17.0	3.9	6.4	17	8	5
6	Deandre Ayton	POR	16.2	11.1	2.0	8	9	2
7	Shaedon Sharpe	POR	15.0	4.2	2.0	17	4	1
8	Myles Turner	IND	14.9	5.7	1.7	9	2	1
9	Bennedict Mathurin	IND	14.8	4.1	1.8	12	7	2
10	Jerami Grant	POR	13.1	3.8	2.2	20	2	1
11	Andrew Nembhard	IND	12.9	3.9	5.6	17	6	2
12	Toumani Camara	POR	12.8	6.3	2.5	13	7	2
13	Aaron Nesmith	IND	8.7	3.5	1.3	5	0	2
14	Obi Toppin	IND	8.0	3.5	1.0	0	2	0
15	Thomas Bryant	IND	7.4	3.8	0.9	5	3	2
16	T.J. McConnell	IND	7.3	3.1	4.3	14	4	4
17	Dalano Banton	POR	6.6	1.6	1.0	0	1	0
18	Ben Sheppard	IND	6.1	2.4	1.7	9	4	2
19	Jarace Walker	IND	5.6	3.5	1.3	2	1	1
20	Donovan Clingan	POR	5.3	7.4	1.1	—	—	—
21	Kris Murray	POR	4.2	2.1	0.9	0	1	0
22	Jabari Walker	POR	3.4	2.8	0.6	0	0	1
23	Robert Williams III	POR	3.1	5.2	0.6	4	11	3
24	Duop Reath	POR	2.5	1.2	0.5	5	0	0
25	Rayan Rupert	POR	2.0	0.9	0.6	0	1	0
26	James Johnson	IND	1.3	0.7	0.3	0	1	1
27	Enrique Freeman	IND	1.3	0.7	0.2	0	1	1
28	Johnny Furphy	IND	1.2	0.6	0.2	0	0	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.