NBA games

LAL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
122–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL45282524122
LAC2921252297

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home LAC
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 31 26 8 9
Rui Hachimura S 34 20 6 2
Austin Reaves S 30 20 6 9
Dalton Knecht 21 14 4 1
Gabe Vincent 22 12 3 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 24 7 4 2
Jaxson Hayes S 24 6 6 4
Jarred Vanderbilt 18 6 6 0
Shake Milton 20 4 2 3
Bronny James 6 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 31 20 2 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 17 2 2
Bones Hyland 7 12 0 0
Kawhi Leonard S 22 11 6 2
Ivica Zubac S 28 8 10 3
Amir Coffey 21 8 0 0
James Harden S 30 7 3 9
Kevin Porter Jr. 13 7 3 2
Nicolas Batum 15 3 2 1
Kris Dunn 18 2 5 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaxson Hayes · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jaxson Hayes makes 3-foot layup (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
14%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Norman Powell LAC
9%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
9 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
44%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.7 7.4 9.2
2 James Harden LAC 23.6 5.3 10.1
3 Norman Powell LAC 22.6 4.4 2.6
4 Austin Reaves LAL 20.7 4.0 6.3
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC 17.7 4.6 3.1
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.6 11.1 2.5
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.6 4.4 1.6
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.3 5.6 1.5
9 Amir Coffey LAC 9.4 2.5 1.5
10 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.8 3.6 2.9
11 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.4 2.6 1.0
12 Drew Eubanks LAC 7.3 5.8 1.0
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.1 2.0 0.7
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.3 1.5 1.7
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.3 3.0 1.5
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.2 4.0 1.0
17 Bones Hyland LAC 5.2 1.2 1.8
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.5 3.2 1.0
19 Patty Mills LAC 4.1 1.2 0.8
20 Kris Dunn LAC 3.7 1.6 1.6
21 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.1 4.2 1.2
22 Shake Milton LAL 2.9 1.1 0.9
23 Armel Traore LAL 2.6 2.6 0.5
24 Kobe Brown LAC 2.3 2.3 0.6
25 Trey Jemison III LAL 2.0 2.5 0.5
26 Bronny James LAL 1.7 1.0 0.5
27 Markieff Morris LAL 1.5 0.7 0.3
28 Kai Jones LAC 1.5 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.