NBA games

MIA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
124–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA37333321124
CHI32283439133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHI
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 35 23 8 4
Tyler Herro S 36 23 8 9
Nikola Jovic 36 20 2 2
Kel'el Ware S 31 17 12 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 22 14 4 5
Alec Burks 18 9 4 2
Duncan Robinson S 11 8 2 1
Terry Rozier 29 5 2 3
Haywood Highsmith S 21 5 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis 31 24 2 0
Josh Giddey S 30 24 5 7
Coby White S 32 22 3 7
Ayo Dosunmu S 29 21 2 9
Nikola Vucevic S 33 12 11 2
Patrick Williams 31 10 7 4
Jalen Smith 15 8 8 4
Julian Phillips 6 5 0 0
Lonzo Ball S 29 5 5 2
Jevon Carter 6 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
4 Kel'el Ware MIA
11%
5 Coby White CHI
10%
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
10 Lonzo Ball CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
25%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.4 4.9 7.0
2 Coby White CHI 20.0 3.5 5.3
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.7 10.1 5.3
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.6 10.7 5.2
5 Kel'el Ware MIA 14.4 9.7 1.5
6 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.8 4.5 4.9
7 Terry Rozier MIA 13.7 4.7 3.4
8 Josh Giddey CHI 13.6 7.2 5.8
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.9 3.2 3.1
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.6 3.2 4.6
11 Patrick Williams CHI 10.4 4.2 1.8
12 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.1 4.4 2.8
13 Lonzo Ball CHI 10.1 3.6 3.2
14 Matas Buzelis CHI 7.4 3.7 0.8
15 Jalen Smith CHI 7.0 5.4 0.7
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.2 2.9 1.2
17 Josh Richardson MIA 5.3 1.8 1.6
18 Jevon Carter CHI 4.8 1.4 0.9
19 Emanuel Miller CHI 4.8 2.2 0.6
20 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 2.4 0.8
21 Kevin Love MIA 3.8 2.2 0.9
22 Alec Burks MIA 3.6 1.2 0.7
23 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.5 1.4 0.6
24 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.5 1.7 0.7
25 Josh Christopher MIA 2.8 1.0 0.8
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 1.8 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.