NBA games

NY @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
121–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY30383023121
TOR34173529115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home TOR
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 34 28 1 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 27 20 2
Mikal Bridges S 41 17 2 2
Precious Achiuwa S 36 17 8 2
Josh Hart S 37 15 7 6
Cameron Payne 13 7 0 6
Ariel Hukporti 19 6 5 2
Miles McBride 21 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 32 23 3 5
Jamal Shead 23 16 3 9
Gradey Dick S 31 14 3 1
Ja'Kobe Walter S 29 13 1 0
Kelly Olynyk 22 11 9 3
Bruce Brown 16 9 3 1
Immanuel Quickley S 21 9 1 5
Ochai Agbaji 23 7 3 0
Jakob Poeltl S 15 5 2 2
Jonathan Mogbo 23 4 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gradey Dick · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Gradey Dick makes 1-foot layup (Jakob Poeltl assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Josh Hart NY
13%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
7 Precious Achiuwa NY
9%
8 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
9 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
10 Jericho Sims NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
24%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.8 3.2 7.7
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.5 11.2 3.8
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.9 7.9 6.3
4 Mikal Bridges NY 21.2 3.6 3.6
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.0 2.9 5.8
6 Josh Hart NY 15.2 11.0 6.1
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.9 10.2 3.4
8 Gradey Dick TOR 12.7 3.0 2.0
9 Bruce Brown TOR 9.3 4.4 1.9
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 8.3 6.3 1.2
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.3 3.4 1.3
12 Miles McBride NY 8.2 2.3 1.7
13 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.8 1.7 4.3
14 Jamal Shead TOR 6.8 1.2 2.6
15 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.5 2.6 2.5
16 Cameron Payne NY 5.9 1.7 1.6
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.3 1.9 1.3
18 Landry Shamet NY 3.2 1.4 0.5
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.2 2.2 0.7
20 Jamison Battle TOR 3.1 1.1 0.7
21 Jericho Sims NY 2.5 2.5 0.6
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.5 2.0 0.4
23 Orlando Robinson TOR 2.4 2.1 0.6
24 Matt Ryan NY 2.3 1.1 0.5
25 Jacob Toppin NY 2.2 1.3 0.4
26 Tyler Kolek NY 2.2 0.9 0.9
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.