NBA games

DAL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
116–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL31342229116
PHI36223624118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home PHI
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 42 34 9 4
Naji Marshall 26 19 4 5
Max Christie 32 15 9 3
Dante Exum S 20 14 1 4
Klay Thompson S 30 12 5 1
Daniel Gafford S 33 12 6 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 22 7 1 7
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 9 2 4 0
Kylor Kelley 5 1 1 0
Kessler Edwards S 23 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 33 4 13
Joel Embiid S 36 29 11 10
Guerschon Yabusele S 35 19 8 4
Justin Edwards S 38 16 2 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 41 9 6 3
Ricky Council IV 20 8 2 3
Adem Bona 8 2 1 1
Reggie Jackson 15 2 0 1
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dante Exum · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Dante Exum makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
9%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
5 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
8%
6 Joel Embiid PHI
7%
7 Max Christie DAL
7%
8 Ricky Council IV PHI
6%
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL
6%
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
54%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 29.7 3.5 8.1
2 Joel Embiid PHI 28.2 8.6 4.4
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.0 4.9 5.2
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 19.1 8.2 3.5
5 Daniel Gafford DAL 18.4 10.4 2.7
6 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 16.4 5.9 3.4
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 13.1 3.4 4.1
8 Klay Thompson DAL 12.5 3.9 2.4
9 Ricky Council IV PHI 11.9 3.7 2.5
10 Eric Gordon PHI 11.6 2.0 2.7
11 Naji Marshall DAL 11.4 4.1 3.4
12 Max Christie DAL 10.4 3.9 1.9
13 Justin Edwards PHI 10.2 3.8 2.0
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.9 1.9 1.8
15 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.9 3.6 1.3
16 Reggie Jackson PHI 5.7 1.7 1.2
17 Adem Bona PHI 5.6 5.0 0.8
18 Kylor Kelley DAL 5.5 4.0 0.7
19 Kyle Lowry PHI 5.4 2.6 2.8
20 Andre Drummond PHI 4.9 5.5 0.7
21 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.4 1.5 1.6
22 Kessler Edwards DAL 4.0 3.0 1.0
23 Brandon Williams DAL 4.0 1.4 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.