NBA games

BOS @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
112–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28263325112
CLE15293130105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CLE
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 35 22 4 7
Derrick White S 35 20 5 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 35 19 7 2
Jaylen Brown S 28 16 9 6
Al Horford 27 13 10 2
Payton Pritchard 29 9 6 3
Jrue Holiday S 26 6 6 1
Luke Kornet 12 4 3 3
Sam Hauser 13 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 31 10 6
Darius Garland S 34 25 1 3
Jarrett Allen S 33 17 18 2
Sam Merrill 24 12 2 1
Evan Mobley S 28 7 5 2
Georges Niang 25 6 2 0
Ty Jerome 15 5 4 0
Max Strus S 29 2 6 1
Caris LeVert 17 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot driving dunk (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
10%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
31%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.4 6.5 6.5
2 Darius Garland CLE 24.2 3.4 7.3
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.1 4.0 5.8
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.6 6.3 5.4
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.2 6.8 2.7
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.4 10.1 2.5
7 Ty Jerome CLE 15.8 3.3 3.5
8 Derrick White BOS 15.4 3.8 3.5
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.1 9.6 1.5
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.9 3.4 3.0
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 9.9 4.6 2.6
12 Caris LeVert CLE 8.7 3.4 3.3
13 Max Strus CLE 8.6 4.3 2.8
14 Georges Niang CLE 8.6 3.7 1.1
15 Sam Merrill CLE 6.9 2.3 1.4
16 Al Horford BOS 6.3 4.1 1.1
17 Sam Hauser BOS 6.2 2.7 1.0
18 Luke Kornet BOS 6.2 4.6 1.2
19 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.8 2.7 1.0
20 Jaden Springer BOS 3.3 1.3 0.7
21 Neemias Queta BOS 3.0 1.6 0.5
22 Drew Peterson BOS 2.8 1.9 0.6
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.4 1.1 0.4
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.3 3.5 1.0
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.6 0.7 0.3
26 Emoni Bates CLE 1.5 0.5 0.3
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.3 0.7 0.3
28 Baylor Scheierman BOS 1.3 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.