NBA games

PHX @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
119–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHX3124252712119
POR3118372114121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home POR
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 47 34 3 4
Kevin Durant S 46 27 5 5
Bradley Beal 38 25 5 3
Royce O'Neale 33 14 4 5
Grayson Allen 34 11 3 2
Mason Plumlee 21 6 12 4
Nick Richards S 18 2 7 2
Tyus Jones S 17 0 0 3
Ryan Dunn S 12 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 42 25 20 2
Deni Avdija S 44 24 8 5
Toumani Camara S 45 17 5 1
Scoot Henderson 22 15 2 6
Jerami Grant S 41 14 5 4
Anfernee Simons S 42 13 2 10
Shaedon Sharpe 19 9 1 2
Donovan Clingan 10 4 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
3 Deni Avdija POR
12%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Nick Richards PHX
9%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
10 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
13%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.2 4.5 6.4
2 Kevin Durant PHX 25.1 5.5 4.2
3 Deni Avdija POR 19.6 7.8 4.9
4 Scoot Henderson POR 17.0 3.9 6.2
5 Anfernee Simons POR 16.5 3.4 4.0
6 Bradley Beal PHX 16.1 3.4 3.8
7 Deandre Ayton POR 16.1 10.9 2.0
8 Shaedon Sharpe POR 14.9 4.5 2.1
9 Toumani Camara POR 13.2 6.3 2.5
10 Jerami Grant POR 12.7 3.6 2.0
11 Tyus Jones PHX 10.1 2.3 4.9
12 Nick Richards PHX 10.0 9.5 1.0
13 Grayson Allen PHX 9.9 3.9 2.0
14 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.4 3.6 1.2
15 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 7.1 6.6 2.3
16 Dalano Banton POR 6.7 1.6 0.9
17 Royce O'Neale PHX 5.7 3.3 1.2
18 Donovan Clingan POR 5.3 7.3 1.1
19 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.7 1.6 1.5
20 Kris Murray POR 4.7 2.3 0.9
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.6 5.2 1.4
22 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.9 2.5 0.9
23 Jabari Walker POR 3.8 3.0 0.6
24 Monte Morris PHX 3.5 1.3 1.2
25 Bol Bol PHX 3.3 1.6 0.5
26 Damion Lee PHX 3.3 1.1 0.6
27 Robert Williams III POR 3.3 5.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.