NBA games

ORL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
99–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2617243299
GS18253922104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home GS
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony 28 26 5 3
Franz Wagner S 37 21 3 5
Paolo Banchero S 37 18 6 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 9 6 1
Goga Bitadze S 20 6 14 1
Wendell Carter Jr. 28 6 9 7
Gary Harris 14 6 0 0
Jett Howard 5 3 0 0
Tristan da Silva 11 2 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 11 2 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 35 25 2 2
Stephen Curry S 34 24 1 5
Moses Moody 24 17 1 0
Dennis Schroder 19 9 2 1
Brandin Podziemski 21 8 5 2
Quinten Post S 20 7 7 3
Draymond Green S 29 4 7 5
Buddy Hield S 19 4 1 0
Gary Payton II 15 4 2 1
Kevon Looney 21 2 15 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
4 Stephen Curry GS
9%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
6 Buddy Hield GS
8%
7 Gary Payton II GS
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Anthony Black ORL
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
29%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 27.3 5.8 5.0
2 Stephen Curry GS 21.6 4.1 6.4
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.8 7.3 5.6
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 20.8 5.5 3.1
5 Cole Anthony ORL 16.0 4.6 4.0
6 Dennis Schroder GS 12.2 2.9 4.4
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.5 7.9 2.5
8 Anthony Black ORL 11.3 3.3 3.6
9 Moses Moody GS 10.7 3.5 1.7
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.8 3.7 2.5
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.1 1.9 1.5
12 Buddy Hield GS 9.1 2.9 2.0
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.1 3.7 1.7
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.0 7.3 2.8
15 Draymond Green GS 7.6 5.3 4.5
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.8 5.5 0.8
17 Jett Howard ORL 6.5 1.7 1.2
18 Gui Santos GS 6.3 3.8 1.6
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.9 3.3 1.3
20 Quinten Post GS 5.8 2.6 1.3
21 Kevon Looney GS 5.8 6.2 1.5
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.8 6.3 1.5
23 Kyle Anderson GS 5.7 3.1 1.8
24 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.8 2.1 1.0
25 Gary Harris ORL 4.7 1.4 0.8
26 Lindy Waters III GS 4.5 2.4 0.9
27 Cory Joseph ORL 2.4 0.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.