NBA games

IND @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
112–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND24332629112
UTAH32292723111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home UTAH
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 22 6 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 18 3 6
Obi Toppin 19 13 3 0
Aaron Nesmith 26 13 7 2
Andrew Nembhard S 30 10 3 8
Bennedict Mathurin S 22 9 1 0
Jarace Walker 18 9 3 1
Thomas Bryant S 26 9 6 1
Ben Sheppard 18 5 3 4
T.J. McConnell 14 4 2 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 32 21 12 0
Jordan Clarkson 35 21 4 3
Keyonte George 31 16 8 11
Lauri Markkanen S 33 16 7 1
Isaiah Collier S 32 11 1 10
Kyle Filipowski 14 10 7 2
Walker Kessler S 34 9 13 1
Micah Potter 11 3 3 0
Collin Sexton S 3 2 1 0
Brice Sensabaugh 15 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Haliburton · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
11%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH
9%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
8 Myles Turner IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
15%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.4 7.7 4.3
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.8 3.9 5.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.6 3.8 8.4
4 Keyonte George UTAH 18.6 4.2 5.9
5 John Collins UTAH 18.5 7.4 2.4
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 17.0 6.0 1.7
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 16.6 3.4 4.0
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.3 5.0 2.3
9 Myles Turner IND 16.2 5.9 1.9
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH 14.6 4.4 7.8
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.0 4.0 5.8
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.6 11.3 1.4
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 11.9 2.6 1.7
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 10.7 3.0 1.8
15 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.6 3.5 1.5
16 Thomas Bryant IND 8.3 4.2 1.1
17 Obi Toppin IND 8.2 3.7 1.3
18 T.J. McConnell IND 7.9 3.5 4.9
19 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.5 4.0 1.7
20 Ben Sheppard IND 6.4 2.8 1.6
21 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.0 2.8 0.9
22 Micah Potter UTAH 5.0 2.9 0.8
23 Jarace Walker IND 4.7 3.4 1.2
24 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.9 0.4
25 Johnny Furphy IND 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.