NO @ DEN
NBA
Ball Arena
·Final
113–125
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 23 | 27 | 35 | 28 | 113 |
| DEN | 33 | 35 | 25 | 32 | 125 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
DEN
40%
60%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III S | 38 | 41 | 3 | 3 |
| CJ McCollum S | 35 | 30 | 6 | 5 |
| Zion Williamson S | 28 | 14 | 6 | 5 |
| Yves Missi S | 34 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| Jose Alvarado | 22 | 8 | 2 | 4 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 27 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
| Javonte Green S | 28 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Antonio Reeves | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Trey Murphy III ·
Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Jamal Murray
DEN
16%
2
CJ McCollum
NO
13%
3
Zion Williamson
NO
12%
4
Christian Braun
DEN
12%
5
Nikola Jokic
DEN
11%
6
Michael Porter Jr.
DEN
11%
7
Trey Murphy III
NO
10%
8
Yves Missi
NO
8%
9
Javonte Green
NO
7%
10
Jordan Hawkins
NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
24%
Layup
40%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikola Jokic | DEN | 28.3 | 10.9 | 11.0 |
| 2 | Zion Williamson | NO | 25.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 |
| 3 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 25.5 | 5.8 | 4.6 |
| 4 | Jamal Murray | DEN | 23.9 | 4.7 | 6.7 |
| 5 | CJ McCollum | NO | 21.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| 6 | Christian Braun | DEN | 17.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 |
| 7 | Michael Porter Jr. | DEN | 15.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 |
| 8 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 11.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 9 | Julian Strawther | DEN | 8.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 10 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 8.3 | 2.2 | 3.8 |
| 11 | Yves Missi | NO | 7.7 | 6.8 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Javonte Green | NO | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 |
| 13 | Daniel Theis | NO | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 |
| 14 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 4.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 |
| 15 | Dario Saric | DEN | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 16 | Antonio Reeves | NO | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 17 | Jamal Cain | NO | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 18 | Jalen Pickett | DEN | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 19 | DeAndre Jordan | DEN | 3.4 | 4.4 | 0.5 |
| 20 | Zeke Nnaji | DEN | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 21 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 22 | Spencer Jones | DEN | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 23 | Hunter Tyson | DEN | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 24 | PJ Hall | DEN | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 25 | Trey Alexander | DEN | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.