NBA games

MIL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
96–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2222312196
OKC3939389125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home OKC
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 18 16 0 1
AJ Johnson 29 13 4 4
Tyler Smith 27 12 7 3
Andre Jackson Jr. S 23 10 4 2
Gary Trent Jr. 21 10 1 1
Chris Livingston S 26 10 6 0
Taurean Prince S 16 8 2 2
Pat Connaughton 21 8 3 1
MarJon Beauchamp 17 6 6 4
AJ Green S 21 2 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 22 34 3 6
Ousmane Dieng 31 21 8 5
Isaiah Joe 23 18 3 2
Aaron Wiggins S 26 13 1 4
Jaylin Williams 26 13 7 0
Luguentz Dort S 21 12 2 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 18 6 12 3
Kenrich Williams S 22 4 3 4
Adam Flagler 12 2 0 0
Alex Ducas 14 2 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Wiggins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Aaron Wiggins makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
30%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
16%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
14%
4 Aaron Wiggins OKC
11%
5 Taurean Prince MIL
11%
6 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Chris Livingston MIL
0%
9 Ryan Rollins MIL
0%
10 MarJon Beauchamp MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
25%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 35.0 4.3 7.4
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.9 5.4 5.6
3 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.4 4.9 2.4
4 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.7 2.9 1.7
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.2 11.3 5.2
6 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.9 3.9 2.1
7 Taurean Prince MIL 9.5 3.5 2.6
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 8.6 2.7 1.5
9 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.2 6.3 2.9
10 AJ Green MIL 8.0 2.6 1.2
11 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.1 4.3 1.1
12 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.9 3.5 1.3
13 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.5 1.6 1.2
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.4 2.4 1.5
15 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.1 2.2 1.0
16 Alex Ducas OKC 3.1 2.4 0.6
17 Adam Flagler OKC 2.7 1.6 0.6
18 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.5 1.2 0.5
19 Delon Wright MIL 2.3 1.1 1.2
20 AJ Johnson MIL 2.2 1.0 1.3
21 Tyler Smith MIL 2.1 1.0 0.3
22 Chris Livingston MIL 1.8 1.4 0.4
23 Dillon Jones OKC 1.8 2.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.