NBA games

SAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
116–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC38292128116
MIN34252728114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIN
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 33 5 7
Malik Monk S 42 26 8 5
Keegan Murray S 40 19 7 1
Domantas Sabonis S 37 14 11 3
Keon Ellis S 34 13 3 2
Trey Lyles 23 5 8 3
Isaac Jones 12 4 0 1
Devin Carter 8 2 5 1
Doug McDermott 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid S 40 30 5 3
Jaden McDaniels S 36 22 7 2
Anthony Edwards S 38 21 6 4
Rudy Gobert S 40 19 13 3
Jaylen Clark 18 7 0 1
Mike Conley S 27 5 3 9
Luka Garza 5 4 1 0
Rob Dillingham 14 4 0 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 23 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Malik Monk SAC
18%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
6%
10 Naz Reid MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
33%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.5 6.0 7.0
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.9 4.1 2.5
3 Malik Monk SAC 21.9 4.2 7.4
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.8 12.7 7.2
5 Naz Reid MIN 15.1 4.7 2.3
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.0 7.6 2.5
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.2 10.1 2.3
8 Keegan Murray SAC 11.6 5.9 1.6
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.4 3.5 2.1
10 Mike Conley MIN 10.0 2.8 4.9
11 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.0 2.0 3.6
12 Keon Ellis SAC 7.7 2.5 1.4
13 Trey Lyles SAC 5.5 4.0 0.9
14 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.0 2.1 0.9
15 Luka Garza MIN 3.9 1.7 0.7
16 Devin Carter SAC 3.5 1.5 0.9
17 Joe Ingles MIN 3.5 1.4 1.7
18 Leonard Miller MIN 3.4 2.7 0.6
19 Mason Jones SAC 3.3 2.0 1.2
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.2 0.9 0.5
21 Josh Minott MIN 2.8 1.4 0.6
22 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.8 1.1 0.8
23 Isaac Jones SAC 2.6 1.4 0.5
24 Jae Crowder SAC 2.3 1.5 0.4
25 Alex Len SAC 1.5 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.