NBA games

SA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
109–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA28213228109
MEM34273037128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MEM
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 27 10 5
Stephon Castle S 28 21 6 5
Jeremy Sochan 21 14 8 3
Devin Vassell S 34 11 3 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 4 9 0 0
Keldon Johnson 24 7 2 3
Julian Champagnie 20 5 5 0
Harrison Barnes S 27 4 5 0
Charles Bassey 7 4 2 1
Blake Wesley 6 4 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 31 6 3
GG Jackson 28 27 4 1
Ja Morant S 29 25 3 11
Zach Edey S 25 16 14 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 22 11 1 5
Santi Aldama 21 6 6 1
Jake LaRavia 24 6 7 3
John Konchar 12 2 3 3
Jaylen Wells S 22 2 1 1
Luke Kennard S 22 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
17%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
3 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
4 Ja Morant MEM
10%
5 Stephon Castle SA
9%
6 Zach Edey MEM
8%
7 Charles Bassey SA
8%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Luke Kennard MEM
6%
10 Chris Paul SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
30%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.3 11.3 4.1
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.2 5.4 3.3
3 Ja Morant MEM 20.2 3.7 7.2
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.2 4.3 3.3
5 Stephon Castle SA 18.0 4.1 4.0
6 Harrison Barnes SA 16.0 4.5 2.8
7 Luke Kennard MEM 13.2 3.3 4.2
8 Keldon Johnson SA 12.4 4.0 1.5
9 Santi Aldama MEM 12.2 5.4 1.8
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.2 2.5 2.0
11 Chris Paul SA 10.6 3.5 6.9
12 Zach Edey MEM 8.9 7.4 1.4
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 7.8 5.7 2.0
14 GG Jackson MEM 6.3 3.5 1.1
15 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.3 3.2 4.0
16 Julian Champagnie SA 6.2 2.8 1.4
17 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.8 3.6 1.5
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.7 2.2 0.9
19 Charles Bassey SA 4.3 5.2 0.7
20 John Konchar MEM 4.0 5.0 0.9
21 Jay Huff MEM 3.7 1.4 0.6
22 Harrison Ingram SA 2.6 2.2 0.7
23 Malaki Branham SA 2.4 0.7 0.6
24 Blake Wesley SA 2.2 1.1 1.7
25 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.1 0.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.