NBA games

HOU @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
118–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU27303229118
NY25272646124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home NY
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 37 25 11 11
Jalen Green S 36 21 5 5
Cam Whitmore 23 18 5 1
Aaron Holiday 17 15 2 0
Tari Eason S 34 12 6 1
Dillon Brooks S 40 11 6 1
Steven Adams 26 8 13 1
Jae'Sean Tate S 22 8 1 6
Reed Sheppard 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 42 6 10
Mikal Bridges S 39 22 3 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 22 9 2
Josh Hart S 40 19 8 5
Miles McBride 26 7 1 1
Precious Achiuwa S 34 7 9 0
Cameron Payne 11 5 1 2
Landry Shamet 6 0 1 0
Ariel Hukporti 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 2-foot two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
5 Jalen Green HOU
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
7 Steven Adams HOU
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Josh Hart NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
34%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.8 3.1 7.6
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.0 4.3 3.9
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.7 11.2 3.9
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.3 10.4 5.1
5 Mikal Bridges NY 20.0 3.4 3.9
6 Amen Thompson HOU 18.7 10.0 4.7
7 Josh Hart NY 14.7 11.4 6.2
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.1 3.4 1.6
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.2 3.1 5.0
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.1 5.9 1.7
11 Tari Eason HOU 11.0 5.7 1.5
12 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.0 4.0 1.6
13 Miles McBride NY 8.4 2.2 1.8
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.8 5.7 1.4
15 Cameron Payne NY 7.4 1.7 1.7
16 Steven Adams HOU 5.7 6.6 1.1
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.2 1.5 1.3
18 Jeff Green HOU 4.8 1.7 0.6
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.7 2.1 0.7
20 Landry Shamet NY 3.8 1.4 0.7
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.2 1.9 0.8
22 Jock Landale HOU 3.2 2.3 0.7
23 Jericho Sims NY 2.8 2.7 0.6
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.8 2.0 0.6
25 Matt Ryan NY 2.5 1.2 0.5
26 Tyler Kolek NY 2.5 1.1 1.0
27 Nate Williams HOU 2.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.