NBA games

ATL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
132–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL34392831132
DET35293432130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DET
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 35 34 0 9
De'Andre Hunter S 31 20 0 0
Dyson Daniels S 36 19 6 7
Zaccharie Risacher S 26 17 3 2
Vit Krejci 28 13 4 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 28 12 8 1
Larry Nance Jr. 20 12 10 2
Garrison Mathews 12 3 4 0
Keaton Wallace 13 2 0 4
Dominick Barlow 11 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 30 6 14
Tobias Harris S 35 22 4 2
Malik Beasley 24 18 5 2
Jalen Duren S 29 18 9 1
Ausar Thompson S 25 13 4 4
Isaiah Stewart 19 10 5 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 27 7 2 4
Ronald Holland II 16 6 3 1
Simone Fontecchio 16 4 0 0
Marcus Sasser 10 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes 15-foot jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
13%
2 Jalen Duren DET
11%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
10 Dominick Barlow ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
30%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.1 5.5 9.8
2 Trae Young ATL 28.0 3.3 8.8
3 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.7 6.6 4.2
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.1 3.7 2.1
5 Jalen Duren DET 16.1 11.9 2.6
6 Malik Beasley DET 14.7 2.9 2.0
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.3 9.7 3.4
8 Tobias Harris DET 12.2 5.3 2.0
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.1 4.3 1.6
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 11.0 3.1 1.7
11 Vit Krejci ATL 10.2 2.9 2.9
12 Ausar Thompson DET 9.6 5.8 1.5
13 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 9.2 5.6 1.8
14 Keaton Wallace ATL 7.2 1.9 2.6
15 Marcus Sasser DET 7.0 1.9 3.0
16 Ronald Holland II DET 6.0 2.4 1.1
17 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.9 3.0 1.0
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.7 5.7 1.6
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.3 2.1 1.0
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.0 3.0 0.6
21 David Roddy ATL 3.6 2.4 0.8
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.4 1.8 0.5
23 Paul Reed DET 3.0 2.3 0.9
24 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.3 1.1 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.