NBA games

WSH @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
124–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH31462027124
CHA29253426114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHA
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 37 26 5 3
Corey Kispert 29 25 4 4
Kyle Kuzma S 31 22 4 2
Malcolm Brogdon 22 16 4 7
Jonas Valanciunas S 29 14 17 4
Kyshawn George S 18 6 4 1
Jordan Poole S 32 6 3 6
Justin Champagnie 13 5 2 0
Bub Carrington 12 4 1 1
Richaun Holmes 19 0 10 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nick Smith Jr. S 39 24 4 2
Miles Bridges S 37 24 10 10
Mark Williams S 32 23 14 2
Vasilije Micic S 29 13 3 5
Josh Green S 37 11 3 1
KJ Simpson 24 9 4 1
Moussa Diabate 16 5 7 1
Isaiah Wong 5 3 0 1
DaQuan Jeffries 12 2 1 1
Seth Curry 9 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Green · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Josh Green makes 8-foot two point shot (Vasilije Micic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
10%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH
9%
6 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
8%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
7%
8 Josh Green CHA
7%
9 Grant Williams CHA
7%
10 Vasilije Micic CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
23%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 24.6 8.0 4.2
2 Mark Williams CHA 20.5 12.6 3.5
3 Jordan Poole WSH 19.1 4.1 5.1
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH 17.2 6.8 3.1
5 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 14.1 4.0 5.0
6 Grant Williams CHA 13.2 6.2 2.3
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.8 4.4 3.0
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 11.7 3.1 3.1
9 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.3 7.4 1.7
10 Corey Kispert WSH 10.3 3.1 1.5
11 Josh Green CHA 9.6 3.2 1.8
12 Vasilije Micic CHA 9.5 2.9 3.9
13 Kyshawn George WSH 9.4 3.3 2.3
14 Seth Curry CHA 8.6 2.0 1.4
15 Bub Carrington WSH 8.3 2.8 2.7
16 Moussa Diabate CHA 7.4 6.5 1.3
17 KJ Simpson CHA 6.2 2.6 2.0
18 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.8 3.8 0.8
19 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 4.7 2.5 1.2
20 Isaiah Wong CHA 4.6 1.8 1.1
21 Justin Champagnie WSH 3.5 2.2 0.6
22 Taj Gibson CHA 2.8 3.1 0.9
23 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.3 0.9 0.4
24 Johnny Davis WSH 1.6 0.8 0.3
25 Anthony Gill WSH 1.5 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.