NBA games

MEM @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
132–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31253739132
MIL28304120119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 37 5 2
Santi Aldama 26 23 8 3
Desmond Bane S 29 22 9 3
Zach Edey S 19 14 11 3
Scotty Pippen Jr. 23 9 5 10
Luke Kennard S 30 8 3 8
Jaylen Wells S 31 6 2 4
Brandon Clarke 19 6 4 1
GG Jackson 17 5 8 2
Jake LaRavia 15 2 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 30 11 7
Khris Middleton 26 20 2 4
Brook Lopez S 32 15 2 2
Damian Lillard S 37 15 3 9
AJ Green 28 14 3 1
Taurean Prince S 31 13 7 5
Andre Jackson Jr. S 14 5 4 1
Ryan Rollins 11 4 0 1
Pat Connaughton 8 3 0 0
Gary Trent Jr. 16 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luke Kennard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Luke Kennard makes 8-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
15%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
5 Zach Edey MEM
10%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
7 Luke Kennard MEM
9%
8 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
8%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
28%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.7 10.9 7.1
2 Damian Lillard MIL 25.7 4.8 7.2
3 Desmond Bane MEM 22.2 5.0 6.5
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.1 5.6 3.0
5 Luke Kennard MEM 13.2 3.5 4.0
6 Brook Lopez MIL 12.3 4.7 2.2
7 Khris Middleton MIL 11.8 3.2 3.6
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.1 2.6 1.9
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.1 2.7 1.8
10 Santi Aldama MEM 10.5 4.9 1.4
11 Taurean Prince MIL 9.1 3.1 2.6
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.2 4.9 1.4
13 Zach Edey MEM 7.8 7.6 1.2
14 AJ Green MIL 7.8 2.5 1.3
15 GG Jackson MEM 6.5 3.0 1.0
16 Jake LaRavia MEM 6.3 3.5 2.1
17 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.0 2.9 3.3
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.8 3.4 1.5
19 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.3 1.5 1.3
20 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.5 2.6 1.8
21 John Konchar MEM 4.2 5.3 0.9
22 Jay Huff MEM 3.9 1.7 0.5
23 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.1 1.5 0.7
24 Delon Wright MIL 2.7 1.1 1.4
25 AJ Johnson MIL 2.6 1.0 1.4
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.4 1.6 0.6
27 Tyler Smith MIL 2.4 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.