NBA games

BOS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
118–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS21233638118
PHI29323316110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHI
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 44 35 7 11
Jaylen Brown S 42 21 10 6
Kristaps Porzingis S 31 18 7 3
Derrick White S 34 17 1 9
Sam Hauser 24 12 4 0
Jrue Holiday S 34 9 5 5
Al Horford 11 4 2 0
Luke Kornet 13 2 2 0
Jaden Springer 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 34 3 6
Guerschon Yabusele S 36 21 6 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 44 18 13 2
Justin Edwards S 44 12 7 1
Ricky Council IV S 35 11 7 8
Kyle Lowry 15 6 3 2
Reggie Jackson 14 6 2 1
Adem Bona 12 2 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
5 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
9%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
7%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
29%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 30.5 3.9 7.4
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.0 6.9 6.8
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.0 6.3 5.7
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.3 7.5 2.9
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.3 7.4 3.3
6 Derrick White BOS 14.4 4.2 3.4
7 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 13.9 6.1 3.2
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.6 3.6 3.5
9 Eric Gordon PHI 11.1 2.1 2.5
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.5 4.5 3.1
11 Justin Edwards PHI 10.2 3.8 1.9
12 Ricky Council IV PHI 8.9 3.1 1.7
13 Al Horford BOS 6.9 4.8 1.4
14 Luke Kornet BOS 6.7 5.4 1.4
15 Sam Hauser BOS 6.4 2.8 1.1
16 Adem Bona PHI 5.7 4.7 0.7
17 Kyle Lowry PHI 5.3 2.4 2.7
18 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.8 1.7 1.0
19 Andre Drummond PHI 4.3 5.4 0.5
20 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.0 1.5 1.4
21 Neemias Queta BOS 3.6 2.0 0.8
22 Drew Peterson BOS 3.5 2.3 0.9
23 Jaden Springer BOS 3.1 1.3 0.8
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.3 1.1 0.6
25 Pete Nance PHI 2.3 1.3 0.6
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.