NBA games

LAC @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
108–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC32291631108
TOR36253123115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home TOR
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 25 5 7
Ivica Zubac S 40 18 8 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 25 17 7 5
Kawhi Leonard S 27 14 6 3
Nicolas Batum 28 11 4 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 31 8 3 1
Amir Coffey S 27 8 2 2
Terance Mann 26 7 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 33 20 6 7
Gradey Dick S 33 18 3 1
Scottie Barnes S 34 15 7 5
Ochai Agbaji 20 12 5 3
Immanuel Quickley S 17 11 0 6
Ja'Kobe Walter 21 10 4 2
Jakob Poeltl S 31 10 10 3
Chris Boucher 16 9 4 0
Bruce Brown 17 6 3 2
Kelly Olynyk 17 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Norman Powell LAC
10%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
7 James Harden LAC
10%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
9 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
29%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell LAC 23.2 4.6 2.7
2 James Harden LAC 23.1 5.4 9.8
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.2 8.1 6.1
4 RJ Barrett TOR 19.5 6.1 4.9
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.3 2.9 5.6
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.1 11.8 2.7
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC 15.8 4.6 2.6
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.9 9.8 3.2
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.7 5.7 1.4
10 Gradey Dick TOR 11.2 2.7 1.9
11 Amir Coffey LAC 10.0 2.8 1.5
12 Chris Boucher TOR 9.6 4.6 1.0
13 Bruce Brown TOR 9.5 4.5 2.0
14 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.0 3.5 2.7
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.2 2.9 1.2
16 Terance Mann LAC 6.0 2.9 1.5
17 Bones Hyland LAC 5.2 1.3 1.8
18 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.9 1.7 1.1
19 Kelly Olynyk TOR 4.7 2.0 1.9
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.6 2.9 0.8
21 Jordan Miller LAC 3.6 2.0 1.0
22 Kobe Brown LAC 3.3 2.8 0.8
23 Orlando Robinson TOR 3.1 2.3 0.7
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.