NBA games

DAL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
101–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL19272926101
CLE50412825144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home CLE
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Hardy 27 21 3 2
Dante Exum S 21 14 2 3
Kylor Kelley S 34 12 11 1
Naji Marshall 22 12 6 2
Quentin Grimes 24 11 3 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 31 10 6 4
Kessler Edwards 22 8 7 1
Brandon Williams 18 6 1 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 24 5 1 2
Klay Thompson S 18 2 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sam Merrill 23 27 1 0
Evan Mobley S 24 22 11 3
Darius Garland S 23 17 3 10
Jarrett Allen S 20 14 9 0
Georges Niang 22 13 2 1
Donovan Mitchell S 24 12 6 6
Ty Jerome 27 12 3 5
Caris LeVert 23 10 0 5
Max Strus S 19 9 3 4
Jaylon Tyson 18 8 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
3 Darius Garland CLE
12%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
12%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
8%
8 Caris LeVert CLE
7%
9 Max Strus CLE
6%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
34%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.8 4.3 5.7
2 Darius Garland CLE 25.3 3.2 7.5
3 P.J. Washington DAL 19.6 10.1 3.6
4 Daniel Gafford DAL 17.8 10.4 2.6
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.3 10.1 2.8
6 Ty Jerome CLE 16.7 3.3 3.5
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 13.2 3.2 3.9
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.2 9.9 2.1
9 Klay Thompson DAL 12.4 3.7 2.4
10 Naji Marshall DAL 11.3 4.0 3.3
11 Quentin Grimes DAL 10.0 2.8 2.4
12 Max Strus CLE 9.6 4.6 3.1
13 Georges Niang CLE 9.1 3.9 1.2
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.6 1.8 1.5
15 Caris LeVert CLE 7.9 2.8 2.9
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.7 3.4 1.0
17 Sam Merrill CLE 6.1 2.4 1.8
18 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.5 2.6 1.0
19 Kylor Kelley DAL 3.6 2.4 0.5
20 Kessler Edwards DAL 3.4 2.5 0.8
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.7 3.1 1.0
22 Brandon Williams DAL 2.6 0.9 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.