NBA games

CHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
119–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI35193233119
DET30343132127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DET
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 34 22 3 3
Nikola Vucevic S 36 20 11 10
Josh Giddey S 36 20 10 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 32 14 3 5
Lonzo Ball S 28 13 4 2
Matas Buzelis 26 12 3 1
Patrick Williams 20 11 3 0
Jevon Carter 12 5 4 0
Dalen Terry 8 2 1 1
Julian Phillips 8 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 34 22 3 15
Jalen Duren S 30 21 13 4
Malik Beasley 28 19 2 5
Tobias Harris S 34 16 6 2
Ausar Thompson S 22 12 7 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 27 12 1 0
Simone Fontecchio 18 11 4 0
Ronald Holland II 15 8 0 2
Isaiah Stewart 18 4 4 2
Marcus Sasser 14 2 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lonzo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Coby White CHI
10%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
9 Lonzo Ball CHI
8%
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
37%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.2 6.1 11.0
2 Coby White CHI 21.0 3.5 4.9
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.6 10.6 4.2
4 Malik Beasley DET 14.9 2.9 1.8
5 Jalen Duren DET 14.3 11.5 2.6
6 Tobias Harris DET 12.0 5.1 2.0
7 Josh Giddey CHI 11.7 7.5 5.8
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 11.7 3.2 1.8
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.0 3.2 4.2
10 Lonzo Ball CHI 10.0 3.4 3.2
11 Patrick Williams CHI 9.9 4.0 1.7
12 Ausar Thompson DET 9.3 5.1 1.5
13 Marcus Sasser DET 7.0 1.9 2.5
14 Matas Buzelis CHI 6.5 3.8 0.6
15 Ronald Holland II DET 5.6 2.7 1.0
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.5 2.8 1.0
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.0 5.5 1.5
18 Dalen Terry CHI 4.3 1.8 1.3
19 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 1.1 0.9
20 Julian Phillips CHI 4.0 2.1 0.5
21 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.0 1.2 0.9
22 Paul Reed DET 3.4 2.5 1.0
23 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.8 1.4 1.1
24 Chris Duarte CHI 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.