NBA games

PHX @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
108–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX27193329108
POR31303729127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home POR
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 35 37 4 5
Kevin Durant S 33 22 1 3
Bradley Beal 24 13 0 3
Tyus Jones S 24 9 0 2
Damion Lee 5 7 0 0
Royce O'Neale 14 5 3 1
Grayson Allen 23 3 4 2
Monte Morris 5 3 0 1
Ryan Dunn S 20 2 5 1
Mason Plumlee 17 2 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 33 24 7 2
Jerami Grant S 33 20 1 3
Toumani Camara S 36 18 10 0
Anfernee Simons S 29 16 4 7
Shaedon Sharpe 25 16 1 0
Scoot Henderson 24 13 3 9
Deni Avdija S 22 10 5 3
Bryce McGowens 3 4 0 0
Kris Murray 13 2 4 0
Duop Reath 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyus Jones · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Tyus Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 Deni Avdija POR
11%
3 Devin Booker PHX
10%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 Nick Richards PHX
9%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
10 Jerami Grant POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
29%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.4 4.6 6.5
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.3 6.0 4.3
3 Deni Avdija POR 20.3 7.8 4.8
4 Scoot Henderson POR 19.5 3.9 6.1
5 Anfernee Simons POR 18.1 3.4 3.8
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 15.7 4.6 2.2
7 Bradley Beal PHX 15.5 3.5 3.9
8 Deandre Ayton POR 14.3 10.7 1.9
9 Toumani Camara POR 12.6 6.5 2.6
10 Jerami Grant POR 11.4 3.5 1.7
11 Grayson Allen PHX 10.8 3.8 1.8
12 Tyus Jones PHX 10.2 2.5 5.2
13 Nick Richards PHX 10.1 9.3 1.1
14 Ryan Dunn PHX 8.1 3.8 1.3
15 Dalano Banton POR 7.5 2.0 1.2
16 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 7.1 6.8 2.3
17 Royce O'Neale PHX 6.2 3.7 1.3
18 Donovan Clingan POR 5.6 7.1 1.2
19 Collin Gillespie PHX 5.3 1.7 1.6
20 Kris Murray POR 5.2 2.3 1.1
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.7 5.4 1.5
22 Monte Morris PHX 4.3 1.5 1.1
23 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.1 2.8 1.0
24 Jabari Walker POR 4.1 2.8 0.7
25 Bol Bol PHX 3.6 1.8 0.5
26 Damion Lee PHX 3.6 1.4 0.6
27 Robert Williams III POR 3.6 5.5 0.6
28 Duop Reath POR 3.3 1.4 0.6
29 Bryce McGowens POR 2.4 1.1 0.5
30 Rayan Rupert POR 2.4 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.