NBA games

MIA @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
105–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA33272520105
SA33232621103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home SA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 38 30 12 9
Terry Rozier 33 19 7 4
Nikola Jovic 25 14 7 4
Tyler Herro S 36 11 4 8
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 23 10 6 1
Duncan Robinson S 27 8 1 1
Haywood Highsmith S 23 7 3 1
Kel'el Ware S 34 6 12 2
Pelle Larsson 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 26 19 5 1
Devin Vassell S 35 18 3 1
Harrison Barnes S 28 12 2 1
Chris Paul S 32 12 4 7
Stephon Castle S 23 10 6 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 10 10 2 0
Charles Bassey S 27 9 15 1
Julian Champagnie 17 6 2 2
Tre Jones 14 3 2 4
Jeremy Sochan 19 2 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 15-foot jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
16%
2 Harrison Barnes SA
13%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
13%
4 Stephon Castle SA
12%
5 Kel'el Ware MIA
11%
6 Devin Vassell SA
11%
7 Chris Paul SA
8%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
34%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.5 5.5 6.8
2 Devin Vassell SA 18.5 4.5 3.8
3 Stephon Castle SA 17.6 3.8 3.9
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.3 10.0 4.4
5 Harrison Barnes SA 15.5 4.6 2.8
6 Kel'el Ware MIA 14.1 9.0 1.4
7 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.8 4.3 5.0
8 Terry Rozier MIA 13.1 4.3 3.5
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.4 3.1 3.0
10 Keldon Johnson SA 11.9 4.1 1.5
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.8 4.3 3.3
12 Chris Paul SA 10.7 3.7 7.1
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.2 6.3 2.1
14 Julian Champagnie SA 6.4 2.8 1.3
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.1 2.7 1.4
16 Tre Jones SA 6.1 2.1 3.1
17 Josh Richardson MIA 5.3 1.8 1.6
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.4 2.2 0.9
19 Kevin Love MIA 4.0 2.4 0.9
20 Alec Burks MIA 3.5 1.2 0.7
21 Zach Collins SA 3.3 2.3 0.9
22 Josh Christopher MIA 3.2 1.2 1.0
23 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.1 1.2 0.6
24 Malaki Branham SA 2.8 1.1 0.7
25 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.7 1.3 0.6
26 Charles Bassey SA 2.6 3.5 0.3
27 Blake Wesley SA 2.6 1.4 1.7
28 Keshad Johnson MIA 1.7 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.