NBA games

LAL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
128–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL32273237128
NY32223523112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home NY
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 33 11 12
Austin Reaves S 29 27 5 6
Rui Hachimura S 38 21 3 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 32 15 2 1
Max Christie S 33 15 3 2
Gabe Vincent 20 9 1 1
Jaxson Hayes S 22 4 2 1
Dalton Knecht 10 2 0 0
Bronny James 2 2 0 0
Christian Koloko 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Hart S 38 26 13 11
Jalen Brunson S 40 17 2 7
Mikal Bridges S 33 16 2 3
Precious Achiuwa 29 15 15 3
OG Anunoby S 17 13 1 1
Miles McBride 23 12 3 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 11 6 3
Ariel Hukporti 2 2 0 0
Cameron Payne 6 0 1 3
Landry Shamet 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"LeBron James makes 1-foot two point shot (Jaxson Hayes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
7 Max Christie LAL
10%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
9 Josh Hart NY
9%
10 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
17%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.2 3.1 7.5
2 LeBron James LAL 25.4 7.2 9.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.2 11.7 4.2
4 Austin Reaves LAL 19.4 4.1 6.5
5 Mikal Bridges NY 18.2 3.1 3.9
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.9 4.5 2.7
7 Josh Hart NY 13.4 10.9 5.5
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.7 4.5 1.5
9 Max Christie LAL 9.9 3.5 1.7
10 Miles McBride NY 7.6 2.1 2.1
11 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.5 2.4 0.8
12 Cameron Payne NY 7.4 1.6 1.3
13 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 6.9 2.8 0.8
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.9 1.5 1.6
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.7 4.0 1.1
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.6 4.0 1.0
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.3 3.9 1.4
18 Shake Milton LAL 3.9 1.6 1.1
19 Landry Shamet NY 3.2 1.0 0.6
20 Christian Koloko LAL 3.0 2.2 0.8
21 Trey Jemison III LAL 2.6 2.9 0.6
22 Bronny James LAL 2.2 1.3 0.6
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 1.3 0.3
24 Jericho Sims NY 1.7 2.1 0.4
25 Matt Ryan NY 1.5 0.7 0.3
26 Tyler Kolek NY 1.5 0.5 0.6
27 Jacob Toppin NY 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.