NBA games

SAC @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
110–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC31243520110
OKC36463131144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home OKC
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 30 20 4 4
Malik Monk S 29 19 4 7
DeMar DeRozan S 31 17 1 2
Domantas Sabonis S 31 16 7 5
Keegan Murray S 28 14 5 1
Isaac Jones 17 7 3 1
Mason Jones 7 5 3 2
Devin Carter 10 5 2 1
Kevin Huerter 8 3 2 2
Keon Ellis 22 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Wiggins S 40 41 14 3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 29 6 9
Luguentz Dort S 31 20 7 2
Kenrich Williams 22 18 11 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 16 15 6
Alex Ducas 6 6 0 0
Jaylin Williams 21 6 13 8
Isaiah Joe 24 6 1 3
Cason Wallace S 9 2 0 0
Ousmane Dieng 25 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
34%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
3 Malik Monk SAC
8%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
8%
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC
7%
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC
7%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
7%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
6%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
5%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
44%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 34.2 4.2 6.7
2 Jalen Williams OKC 24.2 5.4 5.7
3 Malik Monk SAC 23.0 4.1 7.3
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.9 4.2 2.9
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.9 11.1 7.8
6 De'Aaron Fox SAC 20.6 4.8 5.9
7 Keegan Murray SAC 12.2 6.0 1.6
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.8 2.9 1.8
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.5 10.9 5.0
10 Cason Wallace OKC 10.7 4.2 2.8
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.1 3.8 2.3
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.7 4.0 2.1
13 Keon Ellis SAC 7.8 2.6 1.5
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.4 6.1 2.1
15 Trey Lyles SAC 5.5 5.0 1.1
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.8 3.1 1.0
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.8 1.7 0.8
18 Kevin Huerter SAC 3.6 1.1 0.9
19 Mason Jones SAC 3.2 2.0 1.2
20 Devin Carter SAC 3.2 1.6 1.0
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.1 0.6 0.3
22 Jae Crowder SAC 2.4 1.6 0.4
23 Alex Len SAC 2.0 1.7 0.7
24 Alex Ducas OKC 1.8 0.7 0.4
25 Isaac Jones SAC 1.7 0.9 0.3
26 Adam Flagler OKC 1.7 0.7 0.4
27 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 1.5 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.