NBA games

WSH @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
105–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH27312522105
MIN26312026103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIN
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 34 31 8 2
Jordan Poole S 35 19 4 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 37 14 4 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 30 13 10 2
Kyshawn George S 23 11 6 2
Corey Kispert 28 8 4 1
Richaun Holmes 18 6 3 3
Malcolm Brogdon 21 3 5 4
Bub Carrington 14 0 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 40 23 12 4
Mike Conley S 34 16 3 5
Rudy Gobert S 37 16 16 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 41 14 3 5
Joe Ingles 20 10 1 3
Jaylen Clark 20 9 4 0
Naz Reid S 20 8 3 0
Rob Dillingham 18 7 3 7
Luka Garza 11 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes dunk (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
3 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
12%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
12%
5 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
7%
10 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
42%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jordan Poole WSH 18.8 4.1 5.0
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 16.5 6.6 3.4
3 Naz Reid MIN 16.3 5.1 2.6
4 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 14.2 3.3 4.5
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.6 7.2 2.3
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.7 9.7 2.1
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.5 3.9 2.8
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.6 3.6 2.0
9 Corey Kispert WSH 9.2 2.9 1.3
10 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.2 2.1 3.4
11 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 9.1 6.9 1.7
12 Kyshawn George WSH 9.0 2.8 2.3
13 Mike Conley MIN 8.7 2.7 4.8
14 Bub Carrington WSH 8.3 2.9 2.4
15 Luka Garza MIN 4.3 1.8 0.8
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.2 2.4 0.8
17 Leonard Miller MIN 4.1 3.0 0.7
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.0 2.0 0.9
19 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.7 3.3 0.5
20 Josh Minott MIN 3.5 1.8 0.6
21 Joe Ingles MIN 3.3 1.5 1.7
22 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.0 1.2 0.8
23 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.9 1.2 0.6
24 Johnny Davis WSH 2.3 1.1 0.5
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.