NBA games

BKN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
110–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN26273027110
HOU2315263498

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home HOU
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ziaire Williams S 37 21 8 1
D'Angelo Russell S 26 18 1 3
Nic Claxton S 29 17 5 2
Jalen Wilson S 33 13 7 2
Keon Johnson S 34 13 9 5
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 13 4 2
Tosan Evbuomwan 27 7 2 4
Trendon Watford 15 6 5 1
Ben Simmons 24 2 5 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 38 29 3 2
Dillon Brooks S 26 16 9 2
Tari Eason 27 12 9 1
Steven Adams S 25 11 7 0
Amen Thompson S 41 8 10 7
Reed Sheppard 16 6 2 1
Cam Whitmore 14 4 2 0
Aaron Holiday 13 3 0 1
Fred VanVleet S 17 3 0 2
Jock Landale 8 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Fred VanVleet · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
3 Jalen Green HOU
8%
4 D'Angelo Russell BKN
8%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
6 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
7 Steven Adams HOU
7%
8 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 24.2 4.4 4.3
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.7 3.6 3.8
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.3 10.4 5.4
4 Amen Thompson HOU 18.8 9.9 4.7
5 D'Angelo Russell BKN 16.2 3.7 6.9
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 15.5 3.2 5.8
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.6 3.2 1.8
8 Keon Johnson BKN 13.0 3.1 2.7
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.0 5.8 1.7
10 Jalen Wilson BKN 12.3 3.6 2.4
11 Tari Eason HOU 11.3 6.0 1.5
12 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 10.6 4.1 1.7
13 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.1 4.0 1.9
14 Nic Claxton BKN 9.7 7.7 1.7
15 Ben Simmons BKN 9.3 4.6 7.1
16 Noah Clowney BKN 9.2 3.6 1.0
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.2 3.9 1.6
18 Trendon Watford BKN 8.6 2.8 1.3
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.0 6.3 1.2
20 Steven Adams HOU 5.1 6.3 1.2
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.8 2.2 0.8
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.1 1.1 1.0
23 Reece Beekman BKN 3.9 1.2 1.9
24 Jock Landale HOU 3.3 2.3 0.7
25 Jeff Green HOU 3.2 1.1 0.4
26 Nate Williams HOU 2.3 0.6 0.4
27 Reed Sheppard HOU 1.8 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.