NBA games

DEN @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
107–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27273617107
CHA20263523104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home CHA
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 28 13 17
Christian Braun S 38 24 11 2
Jamal Murray S 33 20 1 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 41 15 10 2
Aaron Gordon S 30 6 3 2
Zeke Nnaji 22 6 3 0
Julian Strawther 24 5 1 1
Jalen Pickett 15 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 34 24 12 2
Mark Williams S 32 20 15 3
Nick Smith Jr. S 33 19 1 2
Moussa Diabate 21 12 7 3
Seth Curry 21 10 3 2
KJ Simpson 27 8 6 8
Josh Green S 32 6 1 5
DaQuan Jeffries 14 5 0 1
Isaiah Wong 11 0 3 3
Vasilije Micic S 15 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nick Smith Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:33 Q1
"Nick Smith Jr. makes 11-foot two point shot (Mark Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
15%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
6 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
8%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
8 Grant Williams CHA
6%
9 Josh Green CHA
6%
10 Vasilije Micic CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
25%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.3 11.5 11.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.0 4.5 6.4
3 Miles Bridges CHA 24.1 7.0 4.4
4 Mark Williams CHA 19.7 11.2 3.2
5 Christian Braun DEN 16.3 4.8 1.9
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.8 5.3 1.5
7 Grant Williams CHA 13.0 6.2 2.3
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 11.6 3.6 2.0
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 11.1 3.1 3.0
10 Vasilije Micic CHA 9.6 2.6 3.9
11 Josh Green CHA 9.4 3.4 1.5
12 Seth Curry CHA 8.6 1.9 1.3
13 Julian Strawther DEN 8.3 2.2 1.4
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.3 5.7 1.1
15 KJ Simpson CHA 5.8 2.2 1.6
16 Isaiah Wong CHA 4.9 1.2 1.1
17 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 4.7 2.6 1.1
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.2 4.7 0.6
19 Dario Saric DEN 3.9 2.9 1.4
20 Taj Gibson CHA 3.0 3.1 0.9
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.6 0.8 0.8
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.5 0.8 0.3
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.3 0.8 0.2
24 PJ Hall DEN 1.3 0.8 0.2
25 Trey Alexander DEN 1.3 0.4 0.4
26 Spencer Jones DEN 1.2 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.