NBA games

ORL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
99–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2126223099
UTAH31282628113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home UTAH
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 34 37 6 1
Cole Anthony 27 23 7 4
Paolo Banchero S 34 9 6 6
Tristan da Silva S 25 9 4 0
Wendell Carter Jr. 24 6 5 1
Jett Howard 19 5 0 1
Anthony Black S 32 4 4 3
Goga Bitadze S 16 3 8 3
Jonathan Isaac 14 3 3 0
Gary Harris 16 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 31 22 5 8
John Collins S 33 19 6 0
Jordan Clarkson 21 16 1 2
Isaiah Collier S 28 12 4 6
Keyonte George 24 12 4 4
Lauri Markkanen S 33 12 11 0
Brice Sensabaugh 14 9 3 0
Walker Kessler S 33 8 15 2
Micah Potter 10 3 1 0
Kyle Filipowski 12 0 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:33 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 28-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
4 John Collins UTAH
10%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
8 Anthony Black ORL
7%
9 Micah Potter UTAH
7%
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
22%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 28.1 5.7 5.5
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.8 7.4 5.8
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.4 3.7 5.0
4 Keyonte George UTAH 19.3 3.9 5.8
5 John Collins UTAH 19.2 7.0 2.7
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 17.9 4.9 1.7
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.7 3.2 4.1
8 Cole Anthony ORL 16.4 4.6 4.2
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 14.6 3.0 1.8
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.9 4.2 7.5
11 Anthony Black ORL 13.0 3.5 3.7
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.9 11.5 1.1
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.3 7.9 2.8
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 10.9 3.0 1.9
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.0 7.6 3.2
16 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.3 4.0 2.0
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.7 5.6 0.8
18 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.1 4.2 1.6
19 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.1 2.7 0.9
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.9 2.2 1.2
21 Jett Howard ORL 5.8 1.8 1.2
22 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.7 2.5 1.2
23 Gary Harris ORL 4.8 1.6 0.9
24 Micah Potter UTAH 4.3 2.7 0.8
25 Cory Joseph ORL 2.6 0.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.