NBA games

ATL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
127–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL24403132127
IND40283133132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home IND
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 37 34 3 17
Dyson Daniels S 36 23 4 4
Zaccharie Risacher S 29 17 5 2
Garrison Mathews 19 14 3 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 29 12 11 3
Dominick Barlow S 13 10 3 0
Vit Krejci 15 5 0 0
De'Andre Hunter 29 4 8 2
Larry Nance Jr. 19 4 5 1
Keaton Wallace 14 4 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 20 9 5
Andrew Nembhard S 30 19 1 5
Obi Toppin 15 18 9 0
Bennedict Mathurin S 25 17 2 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 17 4 9
Myles Turner S 34 15 6 3
Aaron Nesmith 23 13 2 1
Ben Sheppard 20 6 5 4
Thomas Bryant 14 5 2 2
T.J. McConnell 11 2 1 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes dunk (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
11%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Myles Turner IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
40%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 25.1 3.5 10.9
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.3 7.4 3.7
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.2 4.0 8.3
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.5 3.5 2.2
5 Myles Turner IND 17.3 5.9 1.9
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.1 6.6 4.2
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.6 4.8 2.1
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.5 10.6 3.2
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.6 4.3 1.5
10 Vit Krejci ATL 11.2 3.4 3.4
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.0 3.8 5.3
12 Thomas Bryant IND 8.6 4.4 1.2
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.5 3.4 4.6
14 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.4 3.5 1.4
15 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 8.1 5.7 1.6
16 Obi Toppin IND 8.0 3.3 1.4
17 Keaton Wallace ATL 7.2 2.3 2.6
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.5 2.6 1.5
19 Jarace Walker IND 5.9 3.8 1.5
20 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.6 2.2 1.2
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.8 3.4 0.7
22 David Roddy ATL 4.5 2.9 1.0
23 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.9 1.5 0.5
24 RayJ Dennis IND 2.5 1.2 0.6
25 James Johnson IND 2.4 1.4 0.6
26 Johnny Furphy IND 2.4 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.